384 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Table 217. — Estimated quantity of lumber and 

 other structural materials used in new residential 

 construction, 1952; median projections to 1975 

 and. 2000 





Dwelling 





Other 



Non- 



All 



Year 



units " 



Lumber 



timber 

 products 



wood 

 materials 



materials 









Million 



Million 



Million 









hoard- 



hoard- 



hoard- 







Million 



feet 



feet 



feet 





Thou- 



hoard- 



equiva- 



equiva- 



or equiva- 





sand 



feet 



lent 



lent 



lent 



1952 



1,301 



13,010 



1,470 



11, 930 



26, 410 



1960 



1,200 



11, 640 



1,800 



11, 280 



24, 720 



1965 



1,500 



14, 250 



2,400 



14, 400 



31, 050 



1970 



1, 800 



16, 650 



3,240 



17, 550 



37, 440 



1975 



2,000 



18, 000 



4,000 



19, 800 



41, 800 



2000 



2,500 



22, 000 



5, 500 



25, 750 



53, 250 



■ Farm and nonfarm. 



Nonresidential Construction Closely 

 Related to Economic Growth 



Another large field of lumber use is construction 

 of commercial and industrial buildings, public 

 utilities, highways, military installations, sewer 

 and water facilities, structures for conservation 

 and development of natural resources, and similar 

 items.^^ The main problem of analyzing trends 

 and relationships pertaining to nonresidential con- 

 struction (in the aggregate, or by types) is in 

 measuring the phj^sical volume of such construc- 

 tion. Buildings come in various sizes and shapes, 

 electric power lines are measured in miles, flood- 

 control dams are measured in size of the dam 

 structure and in storage capacity of the reservoir. 

 The only common unit of measure available for 

 such a heterogeneous collection of facilities is the 

 dollar value of construction put in place during 

 given periods, statistically adjusted to exclude 

 year-to-year changes in construction costs. 



Department of Commerce estimates of volume 

 of construction are used, but it has been necessary 

 to convert them from a 1947-49 to a 1953 cost 

 basis, type hj type, using the relationship of 1953 

 dollar volume at 1953 costs to 1953 dollar volume 

 at 1947-49 costs (table 218). The dollar volume 

 of construction at costs of anj^ specified year, of 

 course, is intended to be an indication of phj^sical 

 volume put in place, not of dollar expenditures. ""' 



'^ Because of special information available, future de- 

 mand for crossties and for other lumber used by railroads 

 will be considered separately later. Demand for lumber in 

 nonresidential construction on farms is also deferred until 

 later. 



'"o Dollar volume estimates of construction, whether in 

 year-to-year costs or in the costs of a specified period, do 



The most striking feature of this historical 

 record of nonresidential construction activity — 

 and one that raises problems in projecting future 

 requirements — is the drastic fluctuations expe- 

 rienced over the period 1915-55 (fig. 115). De- 

 spite these fluctuations, due in large measure to 

 depression and war, there can be little doubt 

 that long-term economic growth entails a fairly 

 definite quantity of nonresidential construction. 

 Goods cannot be manufactured without factory 

 buildings, or distributed without the facilities of 

 commerce. Increase of population and of dis- 

 posable personal income raises requirements for 

 schools, hospitals, churches, theaters, public-utility 

 service, highways, airports, and all the other 

 accouterments of modern living. 



Nonresidential construction in terms of volume 

 put in place annually per million dollars of annual 

 gross national product reveals more consistency 

 (table 219). At 1953 prices, the 1915-55 average 

 relationship has been 60.9 thousand dollars of 

 construction per million dollars of gross national 

 product. 



A projection of 55.5 thousand dollars of non- 

 residential construction per million dollars of gross 

 national product by 1975 and 2000 would appear 

 to be reasonable (table 220). Allocation of these 

 two projections to "private" and to "public" and 

 to major types, made partly on the basis of long- 

 term and recent averages and partly on judgment, 

 allows for more highway building and for the 

 probability that construction of public school 

 buildings will be stepped up considerably. The 

 allocation to militar}^ facilities is comparatively 

 small, in accordance with the assumption that 

 major wars will be avoided. 



Based on these rates, the projected volume of 

 new nonresidential construction, in terms of 1953 

 costs, bv 1975 mav amount to about $35 billion 

 (table 221). By the year 2000, it may amount to 

 about $67 biUion if population is at the 275 million 

 level, and to about $80 bilHon if population is at 

 the 360 milUon level. 



Lumber Plays Facilitating Role 



In most types of nonresidential construction, 

 lumber is used chieflv in what might be called a 

 facilitating role. Stanford Research Institute, in 

 a 1953 survey of a thousand large construction 



not include costs of land nor speculative profits. They do 

 include all costs of materials and of service facilities in- 

 stalled, of architectural and engineering services, of labor, 

 and of overhead and profit on construction operations. If 

 the relationship of material to nonmaterial costs changes 

 during a period of time, constant-dollar volume may not be 

 as accurate an index of physical volume as could be de- 

 sired. But in the absence of the data necessary for refine- 

 ment of existing dollar-volume estimates, they must be 

 taken as they are. 



