390 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTTTRE 



Table 220. — Average annual volume oj new nonresidential construction {excluding railroad and farm) put 

 in place per million dollars oj gross national product during speciHed periods; and projection to 1975 and 

 2000 



[At 1953 prices] ' 



Class of construction 



Thousand dollars of construction per million 

 dollars of GNP 



1915-55 



average 



1949-55 

 average 



1955 



Projec- 

 tion — 1975 

 and 2000 



Private, nonresidential: 



Industrial buildings 



Comm ereial buildings 



Other buildings 



Utilities, excluding railroad 



Others, excluding farm 



Total 



Public, nonresidential: 



Buildings 



Military facilities 



Highways 



Sewer and water 



Conservation and development 

 All other 



Total 



Private and public total 



2 7.0 



2 7.3 



2 5. 3 



9. 1 



. 9 



5. 7 



5.0 



5. 1 



11. 1 



. 3 



6. 3 



7.3 



5.4 



10. 2 



. 4 



5.7 



5. 1 



4.9 



10. 1 



. 3 



29. 8 



27. 1 



29. 6 



26. 



4. 3 

 9. 5 

 3. 

 2. 9 

 1.7 



10. 9 

 2. 5 

 9. 

 2.5 

 2. 5 

 1.0 



10. 7 

 3. 3 



11. 3 

 2. 6 

 1. 4 

 1. 1 



10. 4 



1. 6 



11. 3 



2. 5 

 2.7 

 1. 



31. 1 



28. 5 



30. 4 



29.5 



60. 9 



55. 6 



60. 



55. 5 



1 Volume of construction and gross national product 

 both in 1953 dollars. 



2 Average for 1920-55. 

 available. 



Estimates for 1915-19 not 



lumber in nonresidential construction is quite 

 encouraging. 



Estimates of the volume of lumber used in the 

 various types of nonresidential construction have 

 been made from time to time. The latest esti- 

 mates of this kind by any government agency are 

 those made by the Department of Commerce for 

 1949. Relating these estimates to the correspond- 

 ing estimates of the dollar volume of construction 

 put in place during 1949, in terms of 1953 prices, 

 it is possible to calculate the number of board-feet 

 of lumber used per dollar of construction (table 

 222). Substantially higher lumber-use-per-dollar 

 estimates were produced by a 1953 survey by Stan- 

 ford Research Institute.'"^ One possible explana- 

 tion of that difference is that lumber was in more 

 plentiful supply in 1953 and may therefore have 

 been used more generously. It is also possible 

 that the Department of Commerce could liave un- 

 derestimated lumber consumption in nonresiden- 

 tial construction in 1949, or that the Institute 

 overestimated in 1953. In order to be on the con- 

 servative side, it has seemed advisable to rely upon 

 the factors derived from the estimates of the De- 

 partment of Commerce. 



'*- Publication cited, p. 43. 



Projections of Demand for Lumber in New 

 Nonresidential Construction 



Multiplj'ing the dollar volume of construction 

 put in place during 1952 by factors derived from 

 the Department of Commerce estimates indicates 

 that some 5.4 billion board -feet of lumber may 

 have been used for new nonresidential construction 

 in 1952 (table 223). 



Looking forward to 1975 and 2000, with past 

 technological trends in mind, it appears probable 

 that there will be some further net substitution of 

 other materials for lumber in nonresidential con- 

 struction. The medium and upper projections 

 assume no appreciable change in the relationship 

 of prices of lumber to prices of competing mate- 

 rials. Net substitution to be taken into account 

 is that which would be due only to teclinological 

 and other nonprice factors. On that basis, the 

 overall net substitution woukl probably not exceed 

 15 percent by 1975 and 20 percent by 2000. The 

 smaller decrease in the 1975-2000 period is based 

 on the idea that the earlier phases of substitution 

 will be prett}^ well exhausted by 1975. 



The corresponding lower projections are based 

 on the assumption of a substantial rise in real 

 price of lumber. They are derived from the 



