396 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



It appears reasonable to expect that the volume 

 of nonresidential maintenance and repair will 

 continue to increase at about the same rate as 

 during the past 40 years: 



Quantity in dollars 



at 195S prices 



(.miUion) 



1952 $6,600 



1975 12, 300 



2000 / 2^' ^0° 



^OUO j 31.000 



The lesser of the two estimates for 2000 is based 

 on gross national product at $1,200 bUlion; the 

 greater on gross national product at $1,450 billion. 



Projections of Demand for Lumber for Main- 

 tenance and Repair Construction 



Information bearing directly on quantity of 

 lumber consumed in maintenance and repair is 

 extremely scarce. Few estimates are available. ^"^ 

 The approach here, with certain modifications, 

 relies on the lumber use per dollar of expenditure 

 factors applicable to related new construction. 



In 1953, expenditures for new nonfarm residen- 

 tial construction totaled $10,555 mUlion and 

 1,103,800 dwelling units were started. ^°^ Average 

 expenditure per unit was $9,562. As previously 

 indicated, the average lumber content per dwelling 

 unit built in 1953 was probably about 10,000 

 board-feet. On that basis, lumber used in new 

 residential construction must have been approxi- 

 mately 1 .0 board-foot per dollar of expenditure. 



It seems reasonable to assume that lumber use 

 per dollar of expenditure for residential alterations 

 and additions is about the same as for new con- 

 struction. It also seems reasonable to expect 

 that the anticipated rate of substitution of ply- 

 wood, hardboard, and other materials for lumber 

 in new residential construction will prevail in 

 alterations and additions. Allowing for that sub- 



. '08 Relying in part on previous wartime experience when 

 lumber for such use was under Government priority 

 control, the Department of Commerce has estimated that 

 maintenance and repair (including residential alterations 

 and additions) absorbed 7,876 million board-feet in 1949, 

 8,350 million in 1950. This total embraces all main- 

 tenance and repair, including that done by railroads and 

 on farms. Lumber used for residential alterations and 

 additions was estimated at 876 million board-feet in 1949 

 and 950 million in 1950. No breakdown of the estimates 

 for maintenance and repair was attempted. U. S. Depart- 

 ment of Commerce. Construclion and Construction Ma- 

 terials, p. 9. August 1950. 



Stanford Research Institute, relying in part on informa- 

 tion obtained from retail lumber yards, has estimated that 

 maintenance and repair (including residential alterations 

 and additions, and sawed ties used by the railroads) 

 absorbed 8,700 million board-feet in 1953. Considering 

 that the volume of maintenance and repair increased 

 during the period 1950-53, the estimates of these two 

 agencies — if brought to the same year — would be quite 

 similar. Stanford Research Institute. America's Demand 

 for Wood, 1929-1975, pp. 43-45. Weyerhaeuser Timber 

 Co., Tacoma, Wash., 1954. 



>" U. S. Department of Commerce and U. S. Depart- 

 ment of Labor. Construclion Volume and Costs, 1915—54, 

 pp. 2 and 43. Washington, D. C. 1956. 



stitution at about the same rate as previously al- 

 lowed for in new construction, the lumber use per 

 dollar of expenditure for alterations and additions 

 may decrease from the present estimated 1.0 

 board-foot per dollar to about 0.90 in 1975 and to 

 0.88 by 2000, assuming no change in lumber's 

 relative price. 



Residential maintenance and repair, as pre- 

 viously noted, includes a large component of ex- 

 terior painting and interior redecoration. Prac- 

 tically no lumber is used in either of these activ- 

 ities. But it has also been pointed out that more 

 than half the expenditure for maintenance and 

 repair, made by homeowners in 1954, was for 

 work on structures that were more than 25 years 

 old. Most of that work undoubtedly required a 

 considerable quantity of lumber. Lumber use 

 per dollar of expendittire would appear to be less 

 than that for new construction, but probably not 

 more than 50 percent below. Such reasoning 

 leads to the judgment that present lumber use in 

 residential maintenance and repair may be in the 

 neighborhood of 0.5 board-foot per dollar of ex- 

 penditure. Bearing in mind the do-it-yourself 

 trend, it appears reasonable to expect that use of 

 lumber per dollar unit of work done may remain 

 relatively constant if relative price remains con- 

 stant — say at 0.45 board-foot. 



Lumber in new nonresidential construction is 

 chiefly used in concrete forms, scaffolding, shor- 

 ing, bracing, and other facilitating roles. Main- 

 tenance and repair in the nonresidential construc- 

 tion field require these same facilities. It appears 

 rather unlikely that they require any less lumber 

 per dollar of expenditure than does new construc- 

 tion. Again, if there is no change in the relative 

 price of lumber, there is also little reason to expect 

 that substitution of other materials for lumber in 

 maintenance and repair will be much different 

 from that anticipated in new construction."" 

 The anticipated decreases in the overall lumber-use 

 factor reflect partly the 15 and 20 percent allow- 

 ances for continuation of substitution trends, and 

 partly changes in composition of nonresidential 

 construction. For example, the comparatively 

 larger increase in highway construction, which 

 has a low lumber-use factor, tends to lower the 

 overall average factor. If such changes do occur- 

 as implied by present indications — there wUl be 

 corresponding changes in the composition of 



"" The estimated overall average lumber use per dollar 

 of expenditure for new nonresidential construction (ex- 

 cluding railroad and farm) in 1952 and the projections for 

 1975 and 2000 are as follows: 



Lumher 

 consumption 

 or demand Lumber use 



(million per dollar 



board-feel) (board-fool) 



5, 410 0. 279 



7, 439 . 213 



13, 400 . 200 



16, 200 . 200 



Ezpendilure 

 (million 

 dollars) 



1952 19,419 



1975 35,000 



2000 I ^'^' ^°° 

 JUUU 1 80,000 



