FUTURE DEMAND FOR TEMBER 



397 



nonresidential maintenance and repair. Modifi- 

 cation of these factors for new construction before 

 applying them to maintenance and repair does not 

 appear to be called for. 



Application of these factors (overall lumber use 

 per dollar of expenditure) to estimated 1952 

 expenditures for the various kinds of maintenance 

 and repair construction indicates that 5.7 billion 

 board-feet was probably used for this purpose in 

 1952 (table 226). Medium projected demand by 

 1975 is expected to be 33 percent higher and by 

 2000, 114 percent higher than the 1952 figure. 

 The upper projection for 2000 is 137 percent above 

 1952. 



Table 226. — Estimates oj lumber consumption for 

 maintenance and repair construction in 1952; 

 projections oj demand in 1975 and 2000 



[Million board-feet] 





Resi- 



Nonresi- 







dential 



dential 





Item 



mainte- 



mainte- 



Total 





nance 



nance 







and 



and 







repair ' 



repair ^ 





Consumption in 1952 



3,900 



1,800 



5,700 



Projections to 1975: 









Lower 



4,300 



2, 100 



6,400 



Medium 



5,000 



2.600 



7,600 



Projections to 2000: 









Lower 



5,000 



3,000 



8,000 



Medium 



7,200 



5,000 



12, 200 



Upper . 



8,000 



5,500 



13, 500 







' Including residential alterations and additions. 

 ^ Not including that done by railroads and farms. 



In the case of the lower projection, increases in 

 the relative price of lumber may affect lumber 

 use per dollar of maintenance and repair expendi- 

 tures to about the same extent as they affect new 

 construction. Lumber demand in 1975 for resi- 

 dential maintenance and repair may be about 

 15 percent below the medium projection; for 2000, 

 it may be about 30 percent below. The corre- 

 sponding reductions for nonresidential mainte- 

 nance and repair lumber demand are about 20 

 percent and 40 percent. Overall, the lower 

 projection for 1975 is 16 percent below the 

 medium projection and, for 2000, it is 34 percent 

 below. 



Railroads' Use of Lumber Consists 

 Chiefly of Ties 



About 5 percent of all lumber consumed in the 

 United States during recent years has been used 

 by the railroads — chiefly in the form of sawed ties. 

 Lumber is also used in building and repairing 

 freight cars, and in construction and maintenance 

 and repair of bridges, buildings, and other facilities. 



Many Factors Affect Tie Requirements 



Railroad tie requirements are influenced by 

 miles of track operated, miles of additional track 

 laid annually, number of ties per mile of track, 

 size of ties laid, and the tie replacement rate. 



The mileage of railroad track operated in the 

 United States decreased 49,000 miles between 1930 

 and 1955 (table 227). The greater part (29,000 

 miles) of that decrease occurred in the 1930's. 

 From 1940 to 1955, the decrease amounted to 

 20,000 miles. Present indications point to some 

 further decrease in the mileage of track — partly 

 through abandonment of unprofitable branch lines 

 and partly through continuing relocation of main 

 lines on straighter and more favorable grades. 

 These reductions in mileage of track operated can, 

 however, hardly be regarded as a fundamental 

 trend; they are more in the nature of readjust- 

 ments of the railroad system to enable it to per- 

 form those services for which it is best adapted. 



Assuming that the readjustment phase has not 

 yet run its full course, it appears likely that the 

 mileage of railroad track in operation in 1975 will 

 be in the neighborhood of 360,000 miles, or about 

 1 1 ,000 less than it was in 1955. With an economy 

 of the size anticipated by 2000, however, it is 

 hardly conceivable that the railroads could do 

 their job without a substantial increase of mul- 

 tiple-track lines, of passing tracks, of crossovers 

 and turnouts, and of yard switching tracks. How 

 much increase is a matter of judgment, but it 



Table 227. — Mileage of track operated by line-haul 

 railways and by switching and terminal companies 

 in the United States, 1930-55 ' 



[Tliousand miles] 





Track 





Track 





Track 



Year 



oper- 



Year 



oper- 



Year 



oper- 





ated 





ated 





ated 



1930_.._ 



420 



1939... _ 



391 



1948 



378 



1931____ 



418 



1940 



389 



1949 



378 



1932____ 



416 



1941 



386 



1950 



377 



1933___^ 



411 



1942... _ 



382 



1951___. 



377 



1934._._ 



407 



1943 



381 



1952____ 



375 



1935..-- 



404 



1944 



380 



1953 



374 



1936___, 



401 



1945 



380 



1954 



373 



1937___- 



398 



1946 



379 



1955.... 



371 



1938_..- 



394 



1947.... 



378 







1 These figures include the miles of road operated by 

 electric railways reporting to the Interstate Commerce 

 Commission. Since mileage of road is invariably less than 

 mileage of track, inclusion of these road-mile? go figures 

 involves a small underestimate of total track mileage. 

 Also not included is a comparatively small mileage of 

 track operated by those intrastate railroads which are 

 not required to report to the ICC. 



Source: U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission. Sta- 

 tistics of Railways in the United States (ann. issues 1930- 

 53) and Transport Statistics in the United States (ann. 

 issues 1954-55). Washington, D. C. 



