FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



403 



sumption of sawed material is 2.0 billion board- 

 feet and total consumption of sawed and hewn 

 material is 2.4 billion (table 235). The sums of 

 the estimates for 1975 and 2000 (all sawed mate- 

 rial) are taken as the medium projection of future 

 demand for lumber by railroads. The 2000 total 

 is also taken as the upper projection since a higher 

 estimate for that year (assuming gross national 

 product reaches $1,450 billion) does not seem 

 justifiable. The lower projection for 1975 is 18 

 percent below the medium projection; for 2000 it 

 is about 21 percent below. This projection indi- 

 cates that — with higher relative price — the rail- 

 roads in 1975 would use no more lumber than 

 they used in 1952, and only a little more in 2000: 



MilUoiri 

 hoard- 

 feet 



Consumption in 1952 2,000 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 2,000 



Medium 2,400 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 2,300 



Medium 2, 900 



Upper 2,900 



Table 235. — Estimated consumption of lumber by 

 railroads ' in 1952, and projectio7is of demand 

 to 1975 and 2000 



[Million board-feet] 



Item 



1952 

 con- 

 sump- 

 tion 



Projected 

 demand 





1975 



2000 



Crossties (sawed) 



991 

 128 

 473 

 400 



2 1, 464 

 136 



528 

 250 



2 1, 844 



Switch and bridge ties 



Car lumber ' 



170 

 604 



Lumber for structures 



300 



Total lumber - - - 



1, 992 

 391 



2,378 



2,918 



Hewn ties, lumber equivalent.. 









All sawed and hewn material. 



2, 383 



2,378 



2,918 



1 Includes lumber consumed by car-building companies 

 not owned by the railroads. 



2 Part of the increase over 1952 consumption would be 

 due to the expected disappearance of hewn crossties from 

 the tie market. 



3 Includes lumber for new cars and for repair of cars in 

 service. Also includes lumber for grain doors. 



As Farm Output Increases, More Farm 

 Service Structures Will Be Needed 



Farm service structures include barns of various 

 kinds, hog and poultrj^ houses, granaries and cribs 

 and silos, implement sheds and garages and shops, 

 outdoor feed racks and self-feeders, farm fencing, 

 and other facilities not classified as residential. 

 No census of these structures has ever been taken. 



The available information pertaining to them con- 

 sists of estimates of annual expenditures for new 

 construction and for maintenance and repair, re- 

 sults of a few sampling surveys, and general 

 knowledge of specialists who have been doing 

 research in the field of farm-building design and 

 efficiency. 



The director of farm-building research in the 

 Department of Agriculture has estimated (as of 

 1949) that farms of the United States have "about 

 6 million barns and 20 million other pei-manent 

 structures, housing 25 million cows, 60 million 

 hogs, 525 million chickens, and large numbers of 

 other livestock. The buildings provide seasonal 

 storage for about 5 billion bushels of grains and 

 seeds, 50 million tons of hay, and 40 million tons 

 of silage. A large part of the 500 million bushel 

 production of potatoes, sweetpotatoes, apples, 

 pears, and other late vegetables and fruits is stored 

 on the farm or in community storages controlled 

 by farmeis."^'* 



New methods of farm production have had con- 

 siderable impact on building requirements."^ The 

 decrease in number of farms (from 6.8 million in 

 1938 to 4.8 million in 1954), and the fact that most 

 farms have buildings of some sort, does not mean 

 that the era of extensive construction of new farm 

 buildings is over. Estimates of expenditure for 

 new construction, adjusted for change in costs, 

 indicate that the volume of new farm structures 

 erected since the end of World War II has been 

 considerably larger than at any time in the past 

 (table 236). Volume of maintenance and repair 

 of farm buildings, on the other hand, has tended 

 to be relatively stable. The amount of this kind 



"* Ashby, Wallace. Observations on Farm Building Activ- 

 ity. In Agr. Engin., May 1949. 



1'' "Each change in a farming method, production prac- 

 tice, economic influence or market demand may call for 

 new building solutions. Changes already have outdated 

 the general-purpose barn, small machinery-storage build- 

 ing, and such structures as the smoke house, wash house, 

 ice house, outdoor toilet, and thresher shed. 



"Current trends threatened to do away with or greatly 

 modify the stall dairy barn, ear-corn crib, and overhead 

 hay loft * * * 



"Increased capacity per man due to mechanization tends 

 to result in larger farms, and larger dairy, poultry, cattle, 

 and hog enterprises. 



"More and larger machines call for ample machinery- 

 storage buildings, farm workshops, and better storage for 

 tractor fuels. 



"Adoption of soil-conservation practices results in more 

 pasture and forage crops and consequently more storage 

 space for them and additional shelters for animals that 

 utilize pastures, hay, and forage. 



"Major developments in corn production — hybrid seed, 

 higher yields, and mechanical picking, husking and shell- 

 ing — tend to compel the farmer to adopt artificial drying 

 and conditioning. 



"Competition and market demand has led to concen- 

 tration of poultry raising and dairying into larger units 

 where equipment and manpower can be utilized to best 

 effect." 



Carter, Deane. Farm Buildings, pp. 3 and 4. John 

 Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York. 1954. 



