FUTUEE DFMAND FOR TIMBER 



405 



of farm service building construction will also 

 increase : 



Volume of farm structures constructed 

 (million dollars at I9SS prices) 



Maintenance 

 New buildings and repair Total 



1952 1,019 506 1,525 



1975 1,275 580 1,855 



cy^nn / 1. 850 750 2, 600 



-iuuu j J ggQ g5Q 2,800 



The lower estimates for the year 2000 are for a 

 population of 275 million and the upper estimates 

 are for a population of 360 million. 



What these expenditure figures mean, in terms 

 of number and types of new buildings, is indicated 

 by the results of a 1949 sampling survey conducted 

 by the Department of Agriculture.'^' This survey, 

 which covered approximately 16,000 farms in 382 

 sampling units (usually counties) throughout the 

 United States, showed that about 877,000 new 

 farm service structures were erected in 1949: 



Number 



Barns 107,000 



Poultry houses 204, 000 



Hog houses 48, 000 



Other livestock buildings 94, 000 



Granaries 37,000 



Corn cribs 78, 000 



Other storage buildings 62, 000 



Implement sheds, shops, garages 161, 000 



Other buildings 86, 000 



Total 877, 000 



In addition to new units, the survey found that 

 remodehng work had been done on 337,000 struc- 

 tures and 1,239,000 others had been repaired. 



Buildings Get Larger as Farms Get Larger 



Size and design of building for a particular pur- 

 pose vary from farm to farm and from region to 

 region. As average size of farm increases there is 

 a corresponding trend toward larger capacity 

 buildings. But that change is offset to some extent 

 by a trend toward the cheaper types of building 

 which can more readily be converted from one 

 use to some other, or replaced by another building 

 of different size or design, without undue loss of 

 investment. 



In some areas of the country, for example, the 

 pole-type dairy barn without floor or stalls is 

 increasingly popular. A barn of this type can 

 readily be converted to use for beef cattle. But in 

 some other areas, the conventional two-story barn 

 is still preferred. Barns of this type with gothic 

 or gambrel roof and wood siding normally contain 

 20,000 to 30,000 board-feet of lumber. The pole- 

 type barn, with metal roof and metal siding and 



'21 Burroughs, Roy J. Farm Housing and Construction 

 During Defense Mobilizaiion. In Agr. Finance Rev., pp. 

 36-49. November 1951. Government Printing Office, 

 Washington, D. C. 



large enough for 30 cows, may contain less than 

 10,000 board-feet. 



Estimation of average lumber content per 

 unit for the various classes of farm buildings 

 constructed in 1949 must be very rough because 

 of the lack of any specific survey data. The 

 following estimates are based on analyses of farm- 

 building plans (widely used throughout the coun- 

 try) and upon the advice of Department of Agri- 

 culture experts generally familiar with current 

 trends in farm building: 



Estimated nationwide 

 average lumber con- 

 tent per unit 

 (board-feet) 



Barns 10, 000 



Poultry houses 3, 000 



Hog houses 1, 500 



Other li vestock buildings 5, 000 



Granaries 3, 000 



Corn cribs 2, 500 



Other storage buildings 3, 000 



Implement sheds, shops, garages 4, 000 



Other buildings 2, 000 



These factors, applied to the data on numbers of 

 building by classes, indicate that approximately 

 3.5 billion board-feet of lumber were consumed 

 in this type of new construction during 1949. 

 Since an estimated $922 million was spent for new 

 farm service buildings in 1949, lumber consump- 

 tion per dollar of expenditure may have been in 

 the neighborhood of 3.8 board-feet. However, 

 farmers utilize a considerable amount of previ- 

 ously used lumber in new buildings. With due 

 allowance for this factor, it is likely that consump- 

 tion of new lumber in 1949 did not exceed 3.0 

 board-feet per dollar of expenditure. 



Remodeling and repair of service buildings prob- 

 ably involve about the same volume of lumber per 

 dollar of expenditures as new-building construc- 

 tion. Assuming they do, the total volume of new 

 lumber consumed on farms for nonresidential con- 

 struction and repair in 1949 must have been in 

 the neighborhood of 4 billion board-feet. The 

 corresponding estimate for 1952, when volume 

 of this activity was considerable larger, is 4.5 

 billion board-feet. 



Looking ahead, and taking account of the trend 

 toward larger but less elaborate buildings of lighter 

 construction, it appears reasonable to expect that 

 volume of lumber per dollar of expenditure will 

 decline to about 2.75 board-feet by 1975. Assum- 

 ing this trend will have run its course by that time, 

 it seems likely that there will be no further reduc- 

 tion in lumber use per dollar-unit of structures. 



Projections of Demand for Lumber for Farm 

 Service Building Construction 



On the basis of these factors, medium and upper 

 projections of future demands for lumber on farms 

 for nonresidential construction, maintenance, and 



