FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



407 



mines in 1952 was about 10 percent less than in 

 1950. The lower output of coal suggests the 

 probability that 1952 lumber consumption in 

 mining did not exceed 780 million board-feet. 

 Production of round, split, and hewn mine timbers 

 was probably in the neighborhood of 81 million 

 cubic feet. Since mine timbers are not carried 

 in stock to any important extent, this was appar- 

 ently the 1952 consumption. 



Future demand for lumber and other timber 

 products in mining hinges largely on future demand 

 for coal from underground mines; what that coal 

 demand will be is exceedingly difficult to judge. 

 On the basis of past experience, the Nation's 

 consumption of all the energy materials (coal, 

 petroleum, and natural gas) can be expected to 

 increase by something like 75 percent during the 

 period 1950-75, and probably by 200 percent 

 during the longer 1950-2000 period. 



How much this large increase of energy-materials 

 demand will affect coal production from under- 

 ground mines depends on whether new supplies of 

 petroleum and natural gas will be discovered fast 

 enough to keep pace with the mounting demand 

 for energy. Other factors that enter the situation 

 are: (a) Availability and cost of petroleum from 

 overseas, (b) commercial use of nuclear energy, 

 (c) commercial production of liquid fuels from oil 

 shale and coal, and (d) trends in coal-mining 

 technology. On the basis of present indications, 

 it is not unlikely that the trend toward less 

 dependence on coal will be reversed by 1975 or at 

 least by 2000. This will be especially true if it 

 proves economically profitable to substitute syn- 

 thetic liquid fuels for petroleum. There is, how- 

 ever, the possibility that a new synthetic liquid- 

 fuels industry would be based largely on oil shale 

 and lignite coal mined by open-pit methods. 



With regard to mining of the nonfuel minerals, 

 there is less uncertainty. Demand for tliese will 

 probably increase by something like 60 percent 

 during the period 1950-75 and by 130 to 150 per- 

 cent during the longer 1950-2000 period. Present 

 indications are that a large part of this increase of 

 demand will be met by importations, but even 

 with such an increase there will probably be a 

 large expansion of domestic mineral output. 

 Exploitation of lower-grade deposits, however, 

 will tend to favor open-pit methods in many 

 instances. 



The complexity of outlook regarding future 

 mineral products, especially with regard to coal 

 output of underground mines, makes any statisti- 

 cal projections of demand for lumber in mining 

 rather impracticable. What has been done is to 

 make what appear to be reasonable allowances, 

 purely on a judgment basis. The 1975 lower 

 estimate is about 10 percent below the median 

 figure; for 2000 it is about 20 percent below: 



430296 0—58 27 



Million 

 board- 

 feel 



Consumption in 1952 780 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 800 



Medium 900 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 1, 200 



Medium 1, 500 



Upper 1, 600 



Lumber for Manufactured Products 



About 10 percent of the lumber consumed in the 

 United States during recent years has been used in 

 manufacture. The major item is furniture, but 

 the manufacture of fixtures, caskets and burial 

 boxes, vehicles (chiefly truck bodies and truck 

 trailers), woodenware and novelties, handles, 

 radios (including television sets and record play- 

 ers), and patterns and flasks each required more 

 than 100 million board-feet in 1948 (table 237). 

 Other products in which lesser amounts of lumber 

 are used include: small boats and ships, agricul- 

 tural implements, pencils and penholders, boot 

 and shoe findings, sports equipment, toys, musical 

 instruments, ladders, signs, Venetian blinds, elec- 

 trical equipment, matches, plumbers' woodwork, 

 laundry appliances, house trailers, trunks and 

 valises, and machinery.^^* 



Furniture Manufacturing Requires 

 Lumber Chiefly for Household Furni- 

 ture 



Lumber consumption by the furniture industry 

 in 1954 amounted to an estimated 1,913 million 

 board-feet — about the same as in 1948. Of the 

 total consumed, including furniture dimension 

 stock, wood furniture parts and frames, and lumber- 

 core hardwood plywood, about 93 percent (1,781 

 million board-feet) went into household items. ^^^ 



The output of household furniture is related to 

 the number of furnished dwellings and to the rate 

 at which people are replacing wornout and obso- 

 lescent furnishings. As previously mentioned, 

 there were about 49 million dwelling units in the 

 United States in 1952. The number is expected to 

 increase to about 70 million by 1975 and to 99 or 

 110 million (depending on how fast the total popu- 

 lation grows) by 2000. The minimum increase 

 of household-furniture output to be expected — 

 allowing for replacement at current rate, but witli 



'^'i Flooring, millwork, prefabricated structures, and rail- 

 road freight cars are omitted here because lumber demand 

 for these has already been included in the estimates relating 

 to construction and to railroads. Shipping containers are 

 a manufactured product, but lumber demand for all uses 

 related to shipping will be considered later. 



'« Census of Manufactures 1954, Bulletins MC-25A, 

 MC-25B, and MC-25C. 1957. 



