FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



409 



for household furniture will be exceptionally 

 strong after 1970. With respect to 2000, the 

 population projection of 275 million implies a re- 

 latively low rate of new household formation. 

 Accordingly, demand for new furniture would be 

 relatively weaker. If, on the other hand, popula- 

 tion continues to increase at the pace implied by 

 the population estimate of 360 million, there will 

 be a high rate of new household formation and a 

 larger volume of new residential construction. 



Takuig tliese probabilities into account, along 

 with the projections of number of dwelling units, 

 expenditures for new household furniture in 1975 

 and 2000 are estimated as follows: 



Million dollars Index 



(al 1953 prices) (1952 = 100) 



1952 $3,229 100 



1975 5, 200 161 



2000 [ ^'000 217 



Nonhousehold furniture includes business and 

 professional types, furniture used in schools, 

 churches, hospitals, theaters, libraries, and other 

 public buildings and in restaurants. A large part 

 of this furniture is used in connection with service 

 activity of various kinds; and since per capita 

 consumption of services in general has been 

 increasing and will continue to increase, there is 

 reason to expect that demand for nonhousehold 

 furniture will increase faster than growth of popu- 

 lation. If it increases about as rapidly as dis- 

 posable personal income, the output of non- 

 household furniture (in terms of constant dollars) 

 may expand about as follows : '-^ 



Million Dollars 



dollars per capita 



1952 $517 $3.29 



1975 880 4.10 



2000 I 1'^^^ ^-^^ 



Lumber Use in Household Furniture Varies 

 With Changing Styles 



The household furniture industry consumed 

 1,781 million board-feet of lumber in 1954:'^* 



Thousand 

 hoard-feet 



(1) Wood furniture, not upholstered 1,319,905 



(2) Wood furniture, upholstered 365,118 



(3) Metal household furniture 24, 732 



(4) Mattresses and bedsprings 71,421 



Total 1, 781, 176 



Data for 1952 are not complete, but consumption 

 in that year apparently was about the same as 

 in 1954.'^" Comparable data for earlier years are 

 not available. 



The three principal factors that have tended to 

 reduce the quantity of lumber required for a given 



■27 Dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of non- 

 household furniture. 1952 figure from Census of Manu- 

 factures 1954, Buls. MC-25B and MC-25C. 



output of household furniture are changes in 

 style, substitution of other timber products for 

 lumber, and substitution of metal for wood. 



Changes in style, from the massive type in 

 vogue a generation or more ago to the light 

 "functional" styles now popular, have had two 

 effects: the amount of wood per piece of new 

 furniture is certainly less, but so is furniture dura- 

 bility. Sacrifice of durability means more rapid 

 replacement. What the net effect has been is 

 unlvnovvn. Another trend has been toward use of 

 more upholstered furniture, and the wooden 

 frames in this kind of furniture contain less 

 lumber than would be required for comparable 

 furniture, not upholstered. 



In wood household furnitm-e, lumber faces 

 competition by plywood, hardboard, and particle 

 board. A considerable part of the hardwood ply- 

 wood used, however, is the lumber-core type. 

 Judging from the relationship of reported con- 

 sumption of hardwood lumber by the hardwood 

 plywood industry to reported output of lumber- 

 core hardwood plywood, this type of material 

 contains about 0.85 board-foot of lumber per 

 square foot of plywood.'^" Hence displacement of 

 lumber by plywood is less consequential than it 

 might appear to be. With regard to veneer-core 

 plywood and the composition boards, the displace- 

 ment of lumber is complete. But use of these 

 boards is generally limited to concealed com- 

 ponents in which strength is not an important 

 requirement. 



The 1943 Census of Manufactures sliows that 



'28 Item 1 includes wood fui-niturc parts and frames 

 costing $16,251,000. Quantity estimated on basis of 

 $300 per thousand board-feet. Also includes 44,298 

 thousand square feet of lumber-core hardwood plj-wood. 

 Lumber content estimated on basis of 0.85 board-foot per 

 square foot. 



Item 2 includes dressed softwood lumber costing 

 $1,126,000. Quantity estimated on basis of $85 per 

 thousand board-feet. Also includes wood furniture parts 

 and frames costing $23,373,000, Quantity estimated on 

 basis of $225 per thousand board-feet. 



Item 3 includes wood furniture parts and frames costing 

 $4,304,000. Quantity estimated on basis of $;500 per 

 thousand board-feet. 



Item 4 includes wood furniture parts and frames costing 

 $5,271,000. Quantity estimated on basis of $225 per 

 thousand board-feet. 



Source: Census of Manufaciitres 1934, Bui. MC-25A 

 1957. 



'^^ A Census Bureau survey covering 1952 household 

 furniture production showed lumber consumption (includ- 

 ing hardwood furniture dimension stocl;) at 1,605 million 

 board-feet. This did not include wood frames purchased 

 by the furniture maimfacturers from other producers. 



Purchases of wood frames in the 1954 data are lumped 

 with purchases of wood furniture parts and cannot be 

 segregated. Volume of lumbi^r purchased in 1954, in 

 the form of frames, wood parts, and in lumber-core 

 hardwood plywood, all combined, is estimated at 233 

 million board-feet. 



For 1952 data see Bureau of the Census, Household 

 Furniture and Bedding Products, 1953; Fads for Industry, 

 Ser. M54A-03, 1954. 



'3" Census of Manufactures 1954, Bui. MC-24B, pp. 9, 15. 



