FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



Projections of Demand for Lumber for 

 Manufactured Products 



Medium and upper projections of demand for 

 lumber in manufacture are obtained by adding 

 together the above estimates pertaining to furni- 

 ture and other products. The lower projection is 

 derived from the medium estimates on the assump- 

 tion that increases in the real price of lumber will 

 result in substitution of nonwood materials for 

 lumber amounting to roughly 10 percent by 1975 

 and 25 percent by 2000. In the case of the 

 medium projection, the estimates imply a 40- 

 percent increase in use of lumber for manufactured 

 products during the period 1952-75, and an 

 increase of 102 percent during the period 

 1952-2000: 



Alillion 

 board-feet 



Consumption in 1952 3, 950 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 5, 000 



Medium 5, 500 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 6, 100 



Medium 8, 000 



Upper 9, 400 



Lumber for Use in Shipping 



Between 10 and 20 percent of the lumber con- 

 sumed in the United States is used in the trans- 

 portation and storage of food and manufactured 

 goods. Lumber used annually for this purpose 

 during the 1920's amounted to between 4.3 and 6.3 

 billion board-feet. In the depression years of the 

 1930's the volume used fell as low as 2.8 billion 

 board -feet, but had risen again to an estimated 5.0 

 billion by 1940. The huge overseas movement of 

 military supplies during World War II required 

 large quantities of boxes, cases, and crates. It 

 has been estimated that 14.5 billion board-feet of 

 lumber was used in connection with shipping in 

 1944. Since the end of World War II, shipping 

 use has varied from 5.0 to a little over 6.0 billion 

 board-feet. ^^^ 



Major Shipping Use Is for Wooden 

 Boxes, Cases, and Crates 



The output of wooden box factories consists 

 principally of nailed and wirebound wooden boxes, 

 cases, and crates. Part of these containers are 



'32 All these estimates are subject to considerable margins 

 of error because complete information on volume of lumber 

 consumed in shipping uses has never been collected. Only 

 rough estimates have been made with respect to (a) lumber 

 that goes into the large quantity of wooden boxes, cases, 

 and crates made by container users, themselves — both 

 industrial and military; and (b) with respect to lumber 

 used for "dunnage" to hold cargo in place aboard freight 

 cars and in the holds of ships. The use-sectors for which 

 Census or other data are available include lumber used by 

 the box factories, and lumber used in fabrication of pallets. 



413 



used in hauling fresh fruits and vegetables from 

 fields and orchards to packing plants and in ship- 

 ments from packing plants to final destinations. 

 The remainder of these factory-made containers 

 are used in the storage and transportation of a 

 large variety of manufactured goods. 



Consumption of lumber by the box factories in 

 1947 amounted to 1,910 million board -feet. The 

 corresponding figure for 1954 was 1,416 million 

 board-feet. Estimates for intervening years are 

 based on the number of production workers 

 employed : 



Production 

 Lumber used workers 



(million employed 



board-feet) (number) 



1947 1,910 44,606 



1949 1,381 35,264 



1950 1,451 36,504 



1951 1,643 39,891 



1952 1,543 38,118 



1954 11,416 35,871 



' Includes 652 thousand square feet of lumber-core hard- 

 wood plywood. Lumber content estimated on the basis 

 of 0.85 board-foot per square foot of plywood. Source: 

 Census of Manufactures 1954, Bui. MC-24C, pp. 3, 13. 



Box-factory consumption in 1954 was 26 percent 

 less than in 1947, but box-factory employment de- 

 clined slightly less than 20 percent. The reason 

 for this difi^erence is attributed to the shift from 

 nailed wooden containers toward wirebound con- 

 tainers. Most wirebound boxes and crates are 

 made principalh^ of veneer and some contain no 

 lumber at all. 



In view of the known shift from wooden con- 

 tainers to fiber cartons, these Census data are 

 somewhat surprising. The output of nailed and 

 wirebound wooden containers apparently declined 

 less than 20 percent.'^'' The nailed or wirebound 

 wooden container still holds a prominent place in 

 the transportation of fresh fruits and vegetables — 

 partly because it affords better protection to the 

 contents, and partly because it is not weakened 

 by refrigerator-car moisture. Various alternative 

 methods of shipping are being developed and used, 

 but so far with limited application. The wooden 

 box, case, or crate also has its place in shipment 

 of those manufactured goods which require a high 

 degree of protection. Shipments in freight cars 

 normally require more rigid containers than ship- 

 ments in trucks. Goods shipped in the export 

 trade usually require strong containers that will 

 not crush when superimposed upon each other in 

 ships' holds. 



"3 Although employment declined almost 20 percent, it 

 is relatively certain that productivity per man-year in- 

 creased. Taking this factor into account, there is a strong 

 likelihood that output, in terms of quantity of containers, 

 decreased not more than 10 percent — possibly less. Data 

 on quantity of various types of containers shipped by box 

 factories in 1954 are not available. Comparisons of dollar 

 value of shipment are not usable as an index of quantity 

 shipped because of the many price changes. 



