FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



415 



Table 241. — Esiimated total volume oj lumber used 

 in fabrication of nailed and wirebound boxes, 

 cases, and crates, specified years, 1940-54 



Year 



Total 



lumber 



use 



Lumber 

 used by 

 box fac- 

 tories 



Index 

 of box- 

 factory 

 consump- 

 tion 



1940 



Million 



bd.-fi. 



4, 515 



5,732 



9, 122 



12, 080 



11,762 



10, 765 



5,859 



5,300 



3,816 



4,028 



4, 558 



4,293 



3,922 



Million 

 bd.-ft. 



{1947 = 

 100) 



1941 







1942 







1943 







1944 







1945 







1946 







1947 



1,910 

 1,381 

 1,451 

 1,643 

 1,543 

 1,416 



100 



1949 



1950 



72 

 76 



1951 



1952. 



86 

 81 



1954 



74 







Source: Estimates for 1940-47, U. S. Department of 

 Commerce, Containers and Packaging, December 1948. 

 Box-factory consumption 1947 and 1954, Census of Man- 

 ufactures 1954, Bui. MC-24C, 1957. Data not available 

 for years prior to 1947. 



per pallet) is 1,700 million board-feet by 1975 

 and 3,500 million board-feet by 2000. The upper 

 projection for 2000 is 4,000 million board-feet. 

 The increase during the period 1952-75 is 106 

 percent — but 30 percent of that long-term increase 

 had already occurred during the period 1952-55. 

 The projected further increase during the period 

 1975-2000 would amount to about 106 percent or 

 to 135 percent — depending on growth of popula- 

 tion and of the Nation's economy. 



Lumber Is the Principal Material Used 

 for Dunnage 



Dunnage is the wooden bracing and blocking 

 used to prevent cargo from shifting during transit 

 in freight cars and ships. Lumber is the principal 

 material used for this purpose. 



Information on quantity of lumber consumed 

 annually as dunnage is incomplete. The last 

 survey of wood used in manufacture indicated 

 that manufacturing establishments used 612 mil- 

 lion board-feet of dunnage lumber during 1948.'^'' 

 This probably included about all the dunnage 

 used in freight cars, but probably not much of that 

 used in loading ships. It has been estimated 

 from time to time that 1 billion board-feet of 



'^* U. S. Forest Service, Wood Used in Manufacture 

 1948, pp. 62 and 63. Washington, D. C. 1951. 



lumber is normally used for all types of dunnage. 

 This estimate is probably somewhere near the 

 actual consumption, but there must be a consider- 

 able year-to-year fluctuation of quantity used. 



Changes in methods of shipping certain heavy 

 merchandise, such as automobiles, tend to reduce 

 the quantity of dunnage required in railroad trans- 

 portation. The expansion of United States over- 

 seas exports of manufactured goods, on the other 

 hand, probably increases the amount of dunnage re- 

 quired in that trade. Since export trade in manu- 

 factured goods is expected to increase substantially 

 by 1975 and 2000, medium demand for dunnage 

 lumber has been projected at 1.2 billion board- 

 feet in 1975 and both medium and upper pro- 

 jected demands are the same at 1.5 billion by 2000. 



Wliile these figures involve increases of 20 per- 

 cent by 1975 and of 50 percent by 2000, both imply 

 a rather drastic reduction of dunnage use per ton 

 of merchandise moving through the channels of 

 domestic and export commerce. 



Projections of Demand for Shipping 

 Lumber 



The above series of estimates of lumber used in 

 connection with shipping, added together, total 

 the medium and upper projections to 1975 and 

 2000. The lower projection provides estimates 

 15 percent below the medium projection for 1975 

 and 35 percent below the medium projection for 

 2000, resulting from the assumption that there will 

 be a substantial increase in the real price of lumber. 

 The medium projection for 1975 is 42 percent 

 above 1952 consumption and for 2000 it is 96 

 percent above: 



Million 

 board- 

 feel 



Consumption in 1952 6, 125 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 7, 400 



Medium 8, 700 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 7,800 



Medium 12,000 



Upper 13, 000 



Trends in Lumber Price and 

 Consumption 



Lower projected demand for lumber assumes a 

 substantial increase in price relative to competing 

 materials and is based on an analysis of trends in 

 lumber price and consumption. To obtain some 

 conception of the possible impact of price-change 

 on quantity of lumber consumed in the past, the 

 long-term trend in average lumber price can be 

 compared with the long-term trend in lumber 



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