416 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



consumption. ^^^ But in order to make such a 

 comparison in any meaningful way, several 

 changes in the form of basic data are required. 



Real Price Increased 190 Percent, 1900- 

 1954 



The index of annual average lumber price re- 

 flects change, not only in the price of lumber itself, 

 but also change in buying power of the dollar. In 

 order not to confuse one with the other, the index 



1'^ Analyses of the apparent impact of price changes (and 

 associated factors) on quantity of a product consumed re- 

 quire reasonably accurate price and consumption data — 

 extending over a considerable period of time. Historical 

 data for certain species, grades, and sizes of lumber are 

 available. The diiBculty lies in the absence of correspond- 

 ing information (by species, grade, and size) on end-use 

 consumption of lumber. Most of the end-use consumption 

 data available are for certain years only, and seldom indi- 

 cate species or grade of lumber consumed. This gaJD in 

 fundamental knowledge seriously limits the practicable 

 analyses that can be made regarding impact of price 

 change on quantity of lumber consumed. 



of lumber price is deflated by use of the all-com- 

 modity price index. The result of this procedure 

 is an index of "real price." The increase in the 

 real price of lumber between the years 1900 and 

 1952 was 190 percent (table 242). 



Another measure of price change is "relative 

 price" — the relationship of lumber price to the 

 price of those materials with which lumber is in 

 price competition. But precise statistical measure- 

 ment of the relative price of lumber requires basic 

 information not presently available. 



A properly weighted composite price of those 

 materials actively in price competition with lum- 

 ber depends on information about the quantity of 

 each material which actually does compete with 

 lumber. Portland cement, for example, used in 

 concrete-slab foundations of houses, is in direct 

 competition with lumber; cement used in the pav- 

 ing of highways is not competing with lumber. 

 There is the further complication that lumber used 

 for concrete forms is a complement of cement — not 

 a possible substitute for cement. Since a large part 



Table 242. — Indexes of average lumber price and real price, 1900-1954 



[1926=100] 





Annual 

 average 

 price of 

 lumber, 

 index 



All- 

 com- 

 modity 

 price 

 index ' 



Real price of lumber 



Year 



Annual 

 average 

 price of 

 lumber, 

 index 



All- 

 com- 

 modity 

 price 

 index ' 



Real price of lumber 



Year 



Index 2 



Index 



smoothed 



by 3-year 



moving 



average 



Index 2 



Index 



smoothed 



by 3-year 



moving 



average 



1900 



38. 1 

 38.3 

 40. 3 

 42.8 

 40.3 

 42. 8 

 52.3 

 52. 4 



48. 6 

 48.6 

 48.4 

 47. 6 

 50.9 

 54.0 



49. 9 

 48.7 

 55. 1 

 72. 2 

 83.5 



113.0 

 165. 2 



88.9 



99. 1 

 111. 8 



99.3 

 100.6 

 100. 



93. 1 



56. 1 

 55. 3 

 58.9 

 59. 6 



59. 7 



60. 1 

 61.8 

 65. 2 

 62. 9 

 67.6 

 70. 4 

 64.9 

 69. 1 

 69. 8 

 68. 1 

 69.5 

 85. 5 



117.5 

 131.3 

 138. 6 

 154. 4 



97.6 



96. 7 

 100.6 



98. 1 

 103. 5 

 100.0 



95. 4 



67.9 

 69.3 

 68. 4 

 71.8 

 67.5 

 71. 2 

 84.6 



80. 4 

 77.3 

 71.9 

 68.8 

 73.3 

 73.7 

 77.4 

 73.3 

 70. 1 

 64. 4 

 61.4 

 63.6 



81. 5 

 107.0 



91. 1 

 102. 5 

 111. 1 

 101.2 



97.2 

 100.0 



97.6 





1928 



90.5 



93. 8 



85.8 



69.5 



58. 5 



70. 7 



84.5 



81.8 



87.0 



99.7 



87.4 



93.2 



102. 9 



122. 5 



132. 8 



141. 4 



153. 3 



155. 1 



178. 4 



277.6 



313. 



286.0 



327. 4 



351. 4 



344. 4 



341.0 



335. 2 



96.7 



95.3 



86. 4 



73.0 



64.8 



65. 9 



74. 9 



80.0 



80. 8 



86.3 



78.6 



77. 1 



78.6 



87.3 



98. 8 



103. 1 



104.0 



105. 8 



121. 1 



152. 1 



165. 1 



155. 



161. 5 



179. 8 



174. 8 



172. 5 



172. 8 



93.6 



98. 4 



99. 3 

 95.2 

 90. 3 



107.3 

 112. 8 

 102.3 

 107.7 

 115.5 

 111.2 

 120.9 

 130. 9 

 140.3 

 134. 4 

 137. 1 

 147. 4 



146. 6 



147. 3 

 182.5 

 189. 6 

 184. 5 

 202. 7 

 195.4 

 197.0 

 197.7 

 194.0 



96. 6 



1901 



68. 5 

 69.8 

 69.2 

 70. 2 

 74. 4 

 78.7 

 80.9 

 76.5 

 72.7 

 71.3 

 71.9 

 74.8 

 74. 8 

 73.6 

 69.3 

 65. 3 

 63. 1 

 68.8 

 84.0 

 93.2 

 100.2 

 101. 6 

 105.0 

 103.2 

 99.5 

 98.3 

 97. 1 



1929 



97. 1 



1902 



1930 



97.7 



1903 



1931 - . -._ 



94. 6 



1904 ._ . 



1932 



97. 6 



1905 



1933 



1934 _ . . 



103. 5 



1906 



107.5 



1907 . . 



1935 



107.6 



1908 



1936 



108. 5 



1909 



1937 



111.5 



1910 



1938 



115. 9 



1911 



1939 



121.0 



1912 



1940 - - 



130. 7 



1913- . - 



1941 



135.2 



1914 



1942 



137.3 



1915 



1943 



139. 7 



1916 



1944 



143. 7 



1917 



1945 



147. 1 



1918 



1946 



158. 8 



1919 



1947 _ 



173.2 



1920 



1948 



185. 6 



1921 



1949 - - . 



192.3 



1922 



1950 



194.2 



1923 



1951 



198.4 



1924 



1952 



196.7 



1925 



1953 



196.3 



1926 ._ 



1954 





1927 







' U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 



2 Obtained by dividing annual lumber-price index by 

 corresponding all-commodity price index. 



