418 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



consumption of that particular cluster of materials 

 are not available. However, lumber and its 

 substitutes are widely used throughout the 

 economy. It is reasonable to assume that per 

 capita consumption of this cluster of materials 

 has followed a trend roughly similar to the trend 

 in per capita consumption of all the physical- 

 structure materials, including lumber and all 

 its substitutes. 



The index of relative consumption of lumber, 

 obtained by dividing index numbers of annual 

 per capita consumption of lumber by the cor- 

 responding index numbers of per capita consump- 

 tion of physical-structure materials, shows a 

 decrease of 66 percent between 1900 and 1952 

 (table 244). Thus, the long-term upward progres- 

 sion of real price and of relative price of lumber 

 has been matched by a long-term downward 

 progression in relative consumption. 



This broad generalization of the 52-year price- 

 consumption relationship, however, does not 

 hold for several of the shorter periods within 

 that time span (fig. 118). During the 1900's and 

 1910's, for example, relative consumption of 

 lumber was decreasing about as rapidly as at 

 any time in the whole period. There had been a 

 considerable rise in real price between 1904 and 

 1907, but from this latter year until 1917 real 

 price was generally moving downward. From 

 about the end of World War I until 1923, real 

 price shot up more rapidly than at any other time 

 during the 52-year period; but concurrent with 



this sharp price increase, there was also a moderate 

 rise in relative consumption. From 1926 through 

 1932 real price remained almost constant, but 

 relative consumption took a steep dive. 



Throughout the last half of the 1930's and up 

 to the end of the 1940's, real price climbed upward 

 on a fairly steep and even grade. This upward 

 trend came to a halt in 1952 and had not resumed 

 again as of 1955. Relative consumption of lum- 

 ber, on the other hand, has wavered both upward 

 and downward but with considerable net decrease 

 since the late 1930's. It leveled off in 1934-35, 

 and then dropped — sharply in 1936 and mod- 

 erately in 1937-38. Defense construction pulled 

 lumber consumption upward again and held it 

 about constant from 1939 through 1943. Wartime 

 curtailment of all deferrable construction pushed 

 it downward, moderately but steadily, from 1944 

 through 1948. The post- Wo rid War II construc- 

 tion boom raised consumption somewhat in 

 1949-52. 



Past Consumption Decrease Chiefly 

 Due to Real Price Increase 



Tracing out these relationships of price to 

 consumption shows that short-run variations in 

 the quantity of lumber consumed are not direct 

 and concurrent reflections of the rise and fall of 

 lumber price. But the general relationship 

 indicates that the increase of real price has 



300 



200 



150 



100 

 80 



60 

 50 



40 



30 



NOTE: This chart is plotted on a 

 logarithmic scale. Equal 

 vertical distances denote 

 equal percentage change. 



A---- 



RELATIVE CONSUMPTION 

 OF LUMBER 



^ 



REAL PRICE OF LUMBER 



1900 



■05 



10 



15 



20 



■25 30 



YEARS 



35 



•40 



■45 



50 1955 



Figure 118 



