FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



421 



is quite possible that part of the decrease in con- 

 sumption has been due to some deterioration in 

 the quahty of lumber, to the ways in which lumber 

 has been marketed, to technological changes that 

 have nothing to do with lumber as such, and to 

 changes in consumer preference. Conversely, 

 there are some indications that demand for lumber 

 has become less sensitive to price-increase with 

 the passage of time, possibly because (a) substitu- 

 tion of other materials for lumber has become 

 progressively more difficult, technologically and 

 economically, (b) important complementary rela- 

 tionships between lumber and other materials 

 have been developing, (c) consumer preference for 

 a material long in use tends to be stable, and (d) 

 the efficiency of lumber marketing has improved. 

 Unfortunately, there is no way to distinguish their 

 impact from the impact of rising price. 



But whatever the actual effects of these inter- 

 acting influences have been, the experience of the 

 past 20 years shows quite clearly that demand for 

 lumber is no timid creature that retreats with 

 every advance in price. Quite to the contrary, 

 demand for lumber has displayed an amazing 

 vigor and toughness in the face of advancing price. 



Substantial Price Rise Assumed for 

 Lower Projections 



The lack of year-by-year information, on lumber 

 consumption by principal end-uses, precludes 



analyses of the price-demand relationship on that 

 basis. Therefore, the lower projection is made in 

 terms of lumber demand for all uses. It is derived 

 from the medium projection on the assumption 

 that the 1926 to 1948-52 relationship between 

 real price and relative consumption would con- 

 tinue to hold during the period 1948-52 through 

 1975 and from 1948-52 through 2000. Under 

 this assumption, the real price of lumber would 

 be expected to increase by 38 percent in the 1948- 

 52 to 1975 period and by 97 percent in the 1948-52 

 to 2000 period (table 245). Consistent with these 

 increases in real price, the lower projected demand 

 for lumber in 1975 is estimated at about 48 billion 

 board-feet and in 2000 at 55 billion, or 14 and 30 

 percent less, respectively, than medium projected 

 demand. 



These lower projections of lumber dero.and, of 

 course, imply some pretty drastic losses of market 

 to the lumber industry. In new residential con- 

 struction, for example, average lumber use per 

 dwelling unit would decline from 10,000 board -feet 

 in 1952 to 7,700 m 1975 and to 6,200 board-feet 

 by 2000. In new nonresidential construction, the 

 reduction would be from 0.279 board-foot per 

 dollar of expenditure in 1952 to 0.169 board -foot in 

 1975 and to 0.119 board-foot in 2000. Reductions 

 in lumber use for residential and nonresidential 

 maintenance and repair would be in like propor- 

 tions. The railroads would have to get along in 

 1975 with no more lumber than they used in 1952, 



Table 245. — Relationship of lumber consumption to lumber price 1926 to 1948-52; lower projections to 



1975 and 2000 



Item 



Actual 



1926 



1948-52 



Projections 



1975 



2000 



Lumber consumption or projected demand: 



Total, billion board-feet 



Per capita, board-feet 



Index, 1926= 100.0 



Index, 1948-52= 100.0 - - 



Physical-structure materials input per capita, units 



Index, 1926= 100.0 



Index, 1948-52 = 100.0 



Relative consumption of lumber: 



Index, 1926 = 100.0 



Index, 1948-52=100.0 



Average annual price of lumber: 



Index, 1926=100.0 



Real price of lumber: 



Index, 1926= 100.0 



Index, 1948-52= 100.0 



' 38. 8 

 330. 

 100.0 

 130.4 



2 29. 2 



100. 



82. 5 



3 100. 

 158. 



* 100. 



5 100. 



51. 6 



' 38.4 



253.0 



76.7 



100.0 



2 35. 4 

 121. 2 

 100. 



3 63.3 

 100.0 



' 324. 4 



5 193. 8 

 100.0 



47. 6 



211. 



67. 



87. 4 



38. 6 



132. 2 



109. 1 



50. 7 

 80. 1 



54. 8 



199. 



60.3 



78. 6 



44. 4 



152. 1 



125.5 



39. 6 



62. 6 



267.6 

 138. 1 



381.0 

 196.6 



' Forest Service estimates. 



2 Quantity units measured in constant dollars at 1935-39 

 prices; Bureau of the Census, Raw Materials in the United 

 States Economy, 1900-1952, p. 60. Washington, D. C, 

 1954. 



3 Obtained by dividing the index number for per capita 

 consumption of lumber by the corresponding index number 

 for per capita physical-structure materials input. 



•* U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 

 Index of Wholesale Prices. 



5 Obtained by dividing the index number for lumber 

 prices by the corresponding all-commodity price index 

 number. 



^IM 



