422 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



and with only a little more than that amount in 

 2000. Lumber use per dollar of expenditure for 

 new farm service buildings would be down from 

 the estimated 3.0 board -feet per dollar in 1952 to 

 about 2.6 board-feet in 1975 and to 2.3 board-feet 

 in 2000. Lumber use per dollar of household 

 furniture shipments would have to decline much 

 more than it has heretofore, and the same would 

 be true for other manufactured products. There 

 would also have to be some rather drastic curtail- 

 ments of lumber use in shipping. 



Summary of Lumber-Demand Projec- 

 tions 



Medium projected demand for lumber in the 

 United States is estimated at 55.5 billion board- 

 feet in 1975 and about 79.0 billion in 2000 (table 

 246). These estimates assume a population of 215 

 million by 1975 and 275 million by 2000 and sta- 

 bility in the relative price of lumber and competing 

 materials. But if the population should reach 360 

 million by 2000, and also assuming no change in 

 relative prices, lumber demand may be about 90.0 

 billion board-feet. 



If, on the other hand, population reaches the 

 levels indicated above, but prices of lumber con- 

 tinue to rise considerably faster than prices of 

 competing materials, lumber demand may be 

 about 48.0 billion board-feet by 1975 and 55.0 

 billion by 2000. These lower projections are 14 

 and 30 percent less, respectively, than medium 

 projected demand and reflect an assumed real- 

 price increase of lumber of 35 to 40 percent during 

 the period 1948-52 to 1975 and 90 to 100 percent 

 by 2000. 



In 1952, about 33.4 billion board-feet of soft- 

 wood lumber were consumed and about 8.1 

 billion board -feet of hardwood. In general, the 



softwoods are preferred in all construction uses. 

 Hardwoods are preferred for railroad ties, flooring, 

 furniture, and many other manufactured products. 

 For many end uses either softwood or hardwood 

 lumber can be utilized. If past preferences con- 

 tinue, the distribution of futm-e demand for soft- 

 wood and hardwood lumber may be as foUows: 



Million board-feet 

 Softwood Hardwood Total 



Consumption in 1952 33,408 8,054 41,462 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 36,800 10,800 47,600 



Medium 42,400 13,100 55,500 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 41,100 13,700 54,800 



Medium 58,900 20,100 79,000 



Upper 67,000 23,000 90,000 



FUTURE DEMAND FOR PULPWOOD 



Pulpwood consumed during 1952 in the form of 

 paper, paperboard, and nonpaper products of 

 woodpulp (principally rayon fiber) accounted for 

 about 27 percent of all industrial wood consumed 

 in the United States. In 1900, it accoimted for 

 only about 2 percent of industrial-wood consump- 

 tion. Pulpwood consumption (mcluding wood 

 equivalent of imported pulp and paper) has in- 

 creased from about 2 million cords in 1900 to 35 

 million cords in 1952 and to 42 million cords in 

 1955 (table 247 and fig. 120). 



Future demand for pulpwood is largely de- 

 pendent upon future demand for paper, paper- 

 board, and various nonpaper products of wood- 

 pulp (fig. 121). Demand for these end products, 

 in turn, depends chiefly on whether population 

 rises to 215 million in 1975 and 275 or 360 million 

 in 2000 and whether gross national product rises 

 to $630 billion in 1975 and $1,200 billion or 

 $1,450 billion in 2000, in terms of 1953 doflars. 



Table 246. — Estimated consumption of lumber by specified end uses, 1952; projections oj demand to 1975 



and 2000 

 [Million board-feet] 



Use class 



Estimated 

 1952 



consump- 

 tion 



Projected 1975 demand 



Projected 2000 demand 





Lower 



Medium 



Lower 



Medium 



Upper 



Con.struction: 



Residential, including farm 



13,010 

 5, 400 

 5,700 

 2, 000 

 4,500 

 780 



15, 300 



5, 900 



6, 400 

 2,000 

 4,800 



800 



18, 000 

 7,400 

 7,600 

 2, 400 

 5,000 

 900 



15,400 

 8,000 

 8,000 

 2, 300 

 6,000 

 1, 200 



22, 000 



13,400 



12, 200 



2, 900 



7,000 



1,500 



26, 000 



Nonresidential, excluding railroad and farm. 

 Maintenance and repair. _ _ _ 



16, 000 

 13, 500 



Railroad - 



2,900 



Farm service buildings 



Mining uses ._ _ _ 



7,400 

 1, 600 







Total construction 



31,390 

 3, 950 

 6, 120 



35, 200 

 5,000 

 7,400 



41, 300 

 5,500 

 8,700 



40, 900 

 6, 100 

 7,800 



59, 000 



8,000 



12, 000 



67, 600 



Manufactured products . _ 



9,400 



Shipping __ _ - -- 



13, 000 







Total end uses 



41,460 



47, 600 



55, 500 



54, 800 



79, 000 



90, 000 



