426 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Paper and Paperboard 



Between 1899 and 1955, per capita consumption 

 of paper increased from 47 pounds to 233 pounds, 

 or 396 percent.'^'' During the same period, per 

 capita consumption of paperboard increased from 

 11 pounds to 187 pounds, or 1,600 percent. The 

 combined consumption of the two products ex- 

 ceeded 100 pounds per person by 1914, 200 

 pounds by 1930, and 300 pounds by the late 

 1940's; today it is well over 400 pounds per person. 



Paper Consumption Related to Gross 

 National Product and Population 



Paper is one of the most universally used 

 materials in our economy. Apparent annual 

 consumption has increased from about 1.8 million 

 tons in 1899 to about 19.2 million tons in 1955, an 

 increase of 982 percenb in 56 years (table 248). 



Thus it is not surprising that the trends in the 

 consumption of paper bear a close relation to the 

 trends in gross national product and population.'^* 

 The two periods in which paper consumption 

 departed from what appear to be its usual rela- 

 tions to gross national product and population 

 were the depression years 1932-34 and the World 

 War II years, 1942-45 (fig. 122). 



The relationship of paper consumption to popu- 

 lation and to gross national product during the 

 period 1914-55 (but excluding 1932-34 and 

 1942-45) indicates that medium projected demand 

 for paper may rise to 32.2 million tons by 1975 

 and to 55.0 million tons by 2000. Upper projected 

 demand may rise to 70.0 million tons by 2000. 



The medium and upper projections of total 

 demand for paper in 1975 and 2000 conceal varia- 

 tions m consumption of the individual grade 

 classes of paper. Yet these variations are impor- 

 tant because woodpulp requirements differ from 

 grade class to grade class. Hence, it is desirable 

 to allocate the projections of total demand among 

 demands for each of the gi-ade classes of paper. 

 Because trends will undoubtedly change and new 

 grade classes will be developed, no attempt is 

 made to break dowTi the 2000 projections. How- 

 ever, the medium projection to 1975 is allocated 

 by using, in most cases, the relation between 

 trends in paper consumption and trends in gross 



'3' U. S. Pulp Producens A.ssociation. Woodpulp Sta- 

 tistics, pp. 106-110. 1956 ed., New York. (Compiled 

 from data published by the U. S. Dept. Com.) 



'38 Several analysts who have made estimates of long- 

 term potential demand for paper have used disposable 

 personal income (either by itself or in combination with 

 population) as the independent factor in their projection 

 equations. While the use of disposable personal income 

 data for this purpose is not objectionable, its advantages 

 are probably no greater than its disadvantages. Projec- 

 tions of gross national product are normally more reliable 

 than projections of one component, such as disposable 

 personal income. 



20 



2 16 



o 



^ 14 

 s 



12 



1 10 



o 



•=- 6 

 4 



20 









/ 



TO 



POPUUTION y 



















/1943-. •"« 









y/ 



"^•.,933 

 1932* 



X 





100 



120 130 140 150 



POPULATION IN MILLIONS 



160 







y' 



TO GROSS NATIONA 



L PRODUCT 



y^ 







X 











^ 1943* • 



1944' 









1934. X 

 1933.. / 









100 160 220 280 340 400 



GNP (BILLION 1953 DOLLARS) 

 SOURCE: Paper; 1914-1938 and 1940-1941; Smericnn Poper and Pulp 

 Associotion, STATISTICS OF PAPER , reporting stotistics of the 

 Sureou of the Census. 1939 and 1942-1955: U.S. Deportment of 

 Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Gross Nationol Product and 

 Population: Joint Committee on the Economic Report, POTENTIAL 

 ECONOMIC GROWTH OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 

 DECADE, Washington, D. C, 1954. 



Figure 122 



national product and population, modified where 

 appropriate by past trends m consumption of 

 particular grade classes. 



Newsprint paper in the United States increased 

 from 569 thousand tons consumed in 1899 to 6,500 

 thousand tons in 1955 (fig. 123). With the excep- 

 tion of the depression and wartime periods, about 

 98 percent of the annual variation in consumption 

 has been associated with trends in gross national 

 product and population. Based strictly on this 

 past relationship, indicated medium demand in 

 1975 would amount to about 10.6 million tons. 

 There is, however, some doubt that newsprint 

 demand will continue to gi-ow at the historical 



Ni 



