FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



429 



other similar items — increased from 54 thousand 

 tons consumed in 1899 to 891 thousand tons in 

 1955.'^' 



Based on the past relationship of gross national 

 product and population to consumption of ground- 

 wood papers, the indicated medium demand in 

 1975 would amount to 1.7 million tons. However, 

 in the period 1937-55, with economic activity at 

 a high level, groundwood paper consumption in- 

 creased at a slower rate than prevailed in the 

 period 1914-37. Hence, medium demand for 

 groundwood paper in 1975 is estimated at 1.5 

 million tons. This represents an increase of 67 

 percent over 1955 consumption. 



Book and fine papers include several hundred 

 different grades, most of the paper used in print- 

 ing magazines and books and the writing papers 

 used in homes and offices. Consumption increased 

 from about 490 thousand tons in 1899 to 4.4 

 million tons in 1955. Annual variation in con- 

 sumption, 1914-55, has shown rather close correla- 

 tions with changes in gross national product and 

 population. Medium demand for book and fine 

 papers in 1975 based on this past relationship is 

 estimated at 7.5 million tons. 



Coarse paper is used for brown paper bags and 

 wrapping paper; industrial papers are used for 

 punch cards, electrical material, file folders, and 

 many other similar purposes. Consumption of 

 coarse and industrial papers increased from 535 

 thousand tons in 1899 to 4,300 thousand tons in 

 1955. The trend in consumption has, in general, 

 followed the trend in gi-oss national product. 

 Assuming the same relationship will be maintained, 

 medium demand in 1975 is estimated at 7.4 million 

 tons. 



Tissue and sanitary papers increased from 28 

 thousand tons consumed in 1899 to 1.6 million 

 tons in 1955. Durmg the past 35 years consump- 

 tion has increased much faster than population, 

 personal income, gross national product, or any 

 other independent variable commonly used in 

 projecting demand. The extremely rapid rate of 

 increase has been due to the development of many 

 new uses and to vast improvements in the quality 

 of products. Substitution of paper towels, nap- 

 kins, and facial tissue for textiles has also con- 

 tributed to increased consumption. It is believed, 

 however, that the field for substitution has now 

 been pretty well exploited and that future con- 

 sumption of these gi-ades of paper will tend to 

 increase at a slower rate. Under this assumption, 

 medium demand for tissue and sanitary papers in 

 1975 is estimated at 3 million tons, an increase of 

 88 percent over 1955 consumption. 



139 Available statistics are for production only. Exports 

 and imports of this class of paper are relatively small. 

 Production and consumption within the United States are 

 approximately equal over a period of years, but not neces- 

 sarily for any particular year. 



Building paper includes sheathing papers, roof- 

 ing felts, felts for asphalt tUe, automotive felts, 

 asbestos-filled paper, and a number of other items. 

 Consumption of building paper increased from 97 

 thousand tons in 1899 to about 1.5 million tons in 

 1955. Demand for building paper depends in 

 large part upon the amount of residential con- 

 struction. If, as estimated previously, there is a 

 54 percent increase in residential construction by 

 1975, a medium demand for building paper of 

 about 2.0 million tons is indicated. It is likely, 

 however, that use of building paper wUl increase 

 faster than residential construction activity, since 

 new uses are still being developed. Assuming 

 continued development of new uses for buUding 

 paper, medium demand in 1975 is estimated at 2.8 

 million tons. 



Paperboard Consumption Has In- 

 creased 5 Percent Annually Since 1929 



Apparent annual consumption of paperboard 

 increased from about 394 thousand tons in 1899 

 to 15,341 thousand tons in 1955 (table 249). 

 Prior to the 1920's, container board and bending 

 board accounted for most of the paperboard con- 

 sumed. Other grades were developed during the 

 1920's. During the period 1929-55 consumption 

 of paperboard increased at an average annual rate 

 of 5 percent. (The corresponding rate of increase 

 of consumption for paper during the same period 

 was 2.9 percent.) 



Paperboard consumption has been closely re- 

 lated to gross national product and population 

 during the period 1914 through 1955 (fig. 124). 

 Consumption of paperboard fell less than gross 

 national product during the depression years 

 1932-34. During the war years (1942-45) it 

 maintained a closer relationship to gross national 

 product than paper, but there was some lag. 

 With respect to population, there was no sub- 

 stantial deviation from the regression line during 

 that period. 



Assuming as in the case of paper that this 

 relationship will continue into the future and that 

 gross national product and population will in- 

 crease as estimated, medium projected demand for 

 paperboard is expected to reach 27.8 million tons 

 by 1975 and 50.0 million by 2000. Upper pro- 

 jected demand totals 65.0 million tons in 2000. 



As in the case of paper, allocation of the total 

 demand for paperboard, by principal grade classes, 

 is made only for medium projected demand in 

 1975, using the relationships between trends in 

 consumption and in gross national product and 

 population. No grade class allocation is made for 

 the 2000 projections. 



Container hoard, ordinarily used for the outer 

 packing box or case in the shipment of com- 

 modities, includes liners, corrugating material, 

 and container chipboard. Consumption has in- 



