>«^ 



FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



amounted to 423 thousand tons or about one- 

 third of 1953 building board consumption. The 

 past decade, however, has been a developmental 

 period stimulated in part by the expiration of 

 certain patents, formerly held by one company. 

 Comparable annual percentage increases in con- 

 sumption are not likely to continue indefinitely, 

 even though most of the increase in the consump- 

 tion of building board since 1940 has been ac- 

 counted for by the rapid increase in hardboard 

 production. It is expected that building board 

 will continue to displace lumber and plywood in 

 construction and that medium demand by 1975 

 may total 3.5 million tons. 



Other paperboard includes products such as stock 

 used for fiber tubes, drums and cans, eggcase filler 

 board, liners for gypsum and plaster board, card- 

 board, and a number of other items. Consump- 

 tion increased from 319 thousand tons in 1929 to 

 1,500 thousand tons in 1955, substantially above 

 increases in gross national product and popula- 

 tion. About half of the past consumption of other 

 paperboard appears to have been associated with 

 construction and half with shipping. Some in- 

 crease in the use of other paperboard as a substi- 

 tute for lumber and plywood in construction and 

 in shipping is expected. Medium demand in 

 1975 is estimated at 2.8 miUion tons, about 87 

 percent above the level of 1955 consumption. 



WOODPULP 



The total estimates of medium and upper de- 

 mand for paper and paperboard indicate that per 

 capita consumption may increase from 420 pounds 

 in 1955 to 558 pounds in 1975 and to 750 poimds 

 or more in 2000. The next step is to estimate 

 the amount of new woodpulp that would be re- 

 quired to meet the medium demand for 60 million 

 tons of paper and paperboard in 1975 and 105 

 million tons in 2000 or the upper demand of 135 

 million tons in 2000 (table 250). Additional al- 

 lowance must also be made for woodpulp required 

 in the manufacture of nonpaper products. 



Once suitable pulping processes were developed, 

 wood rapidly assumed the dominant position as a 

 source of fiber for the paper industry. As early 

 as 1899, 53 percent of all fibrous materials used in 

 the manufacture of paper and paperboard con- 

 sisted of new woodpulp. Since then, the relative 

 importance of new woodpulp has increased and in 

 1955 it accounted for about 68 percent of all raw 

 material used. Waste paper (largely made orig- 

 inally from woodpulp) has been the second most 

 important source and in 1955 accounted for about 

 28 percent of fibrous materials consumed. Rags, 

 straw, bagasse, cotton, manila stock, and other 

 materials of miscellaneous origin contributed small 

 amoimts of fiber — about 4 percent of the total in 



433 



Table 250. — Consumption of 2>a^er and paper- 

 hoard in the United States, 1955; medium, and 

 upper projections oj demand to 1975 and 2000 



[Million tons] 



Grade classes 



1955 

 con- 

 sump- 

 tion ' 



Medi- 

 um pro- 

 jected 

 demand 

 1975 



Medi- 

 um pro- 

 jected 



de- 

 mand 2 

 2000 



Upper 

 pro- 

 jected 



de- 

 mand 2 

 2000 



Paper: 



Newsprint 



6.5 



. 9 



4. 4 



4. 3 

 1.6 

 1. 5 



10.0 

 1. 5 

 7.5 



7.4 

 3.0 

 2.8 







Groundwood papers. . 

 Book and fine 











Coarse and indus- 

 trial 







Tissue and sanitary. _ 

 Building paper 











All papers 



Index 



19.2 

 100 



32. 2 

 168 



55. 

 286 



70.0 

 365 



Paperboard: 



Container board 



7. 3 

 3.9 

 1. 

 1.6 

 1. 5 



12.5 

 7.5 

 1.5 



3.5 



2.8 







Bending board 







Nonbending board _ 







Building board 







Other boards __ 













All paperboard-. 

 Index 



15.3 

 100 



27.8 

 182 



50.0 

 327 



65. 

 425 



All paper and 



paperboard 



Index 



34.5 

 100 



60. 

 174 



105.0 

 304 



135.0 

 391 



1 U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 



2 Not itemized by grade classes. 



1955. A large part of these miscellaneous fibers 

 were used in the manufacture of specialty products. 



Since 1929, the quantity of new woodpulp con- 

 sumed per ton of paper and paperboard produced 

 has increased gradually (although with consider- 

 able variations), climbing from 0.60 ton in that 

 year to the 1954 level of 0.71 ton. Because the 

 quantity varies widely from one grade class to 

 another, it is desirable to estimate demand for 

 new woodpulp separately by grade classes of paper 

 and paperboard, where possible. Since 1943-44 

 there has been a shift toward more new woodpulp 

 in most grades of paper and paperboard (table 

 251). 



Medium and upper estimates of requirements 

 for new woodpulp to be used in the manufacture 

 of paper and paperboard are based upon the 1954 

 factors, but with adjustments to take into account 

 expected trends in new woodpulp content in the 

 principal grade classes of paper and paperboard. 

 For 1975 the medium estimate of woodpulp 



