438 



TIMBER RESOTJRCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Combining these estimates with those for paper 

 and paperboard gives total projected demand for 

 new woodpulp as follows : 



Million ions 



For paper For non- 

 and paper 



Medium projections: paperboard products Total 



1975 47 2 49 



2000 72 3 75 



Upper projection: 



2000 91 4 95 



PULPWOOD 



The foregoing medium and upper projections of 

 new woodpulp demand rest on the assumption 

 that prices of all woodpulp products will follow a 

 trend roughly parallel to the trend of prices in 

 general and to the trend of prices of competing 

 materials. Before proceeding further, it is neces- 

 sary to consider the implications of this assumption 

 in some detail — in order to lay the groundwork for 

 projections of future demand for pulpwood. 



Real Price of Woodpulp Products 

 Remarkably Stable 



Analysis of the price-consumption relationship 

 for woodpulp products "^ involves the same types 

 of problems that were discussed with respect to 

 lumber — except that the price data now available 

 are less satisfactory than the price data for lumber. 

 Among those available, the most reliable indicator 

 of long-term trends in the price of woodpulp prod- 

 ucts appears to be a composite price index that 

 includes not only the price of market pulp but 

 also the price of paper and paperboard. '^° 



"5 Analyses of this kind might more logically be based 

 on the price of pulpwood rather than on price of woodpulp 

 products. There is, however, no officially compiled series 

 on the long-term price of pulpwood. Pulpwood cut from 

 company-owned forest land doesn't usually change hands, 

 so there is no occasion to put a price on it. Most com- 

 panies, of course, bu}' pulpwood from other sources, but 

 information on prices paid for such wood is not available 

 nationally. 



'^' Separate price-consumption analyses for woodpulp, 

 paper, and paperboard would be desirable. The price 

 data available, however, are not adequate for such analysis. 

 Prior to 1929, for example, the price index for paper was 

 based on two grades only — newsprint and manila wrapping 

 paper; the price index of paperboard was based on three 

 grades of "boxboard." The officially compiled series on 

 the price of woodpulp is based on sales of so-called market 

 pulp. But the volume of woodpulp that moves in this 

 trade is less than 20 percent of total woodpulp consump)- 

 tion. The other 80 percent is utilized by integrated mills 

 and sold in the form of paper, paperboard, and other wood- 

 pulp products. The quantities of the various types of 

 woodpulp that enter the market pulp trade are not repre- 

 sentative of the type-distribution of all pulp consumed. 

 Furthermore, the price of market pulp is quite erratic, 

 because of fluctuations of imports and the variable quan- 

 tities of pulp put on the open market by integrated mills. 

 In view of all these factors, the price of market pulp alone 

 is not a satisfactory indicator of price of woodpulp products 

 in general. 



The 1920-54 trend in the composite real price 

 of woodpulp, paper, and paperboard shows no 

 discernible upward or downward movement of 

 any significance (table 254). Moderate fluctua- 

 tions have occurred, but the tendency has been 

 for price of woodpulp products repeatedly to come 

 back into line with the general trend of all com- 

 modity prices. In view of the rapid expansion of 

 demand for woodpulp products, this record of 

 price stability is truly remarkable. 



In contrast, the relative consumption of pulp- 

 wood has fluctuated considerably (table 255). 

 Using the index number 100 to represent 1926 

 relative consumption, the long-term increase was 

 from 65 in 1915-17 to 183 in 1950-52. The dif- 

 ference between the 1915-17 3-year average of 

 relative consumption and the 1950-52 3-year aver- 

 age amounts to 182 percent — equal to an annual 

 rate, for the whole 45-year period, of 2.33 percent 

 per year. 



There is little e\adence to indicate that changes 

 in real price of woodpulp products have exerted 

 much influence on the relative consumption of 

 pulpwood (fig. 127). It is true that in the late 

 1930's real price crept upward whde relative con- 

 sumption was decreasing, but the period of time 

 is much too short to justify any broad inference 

 with respect to the impact of price-change upon 

 consumption. In the post-World War II period 

 real price has tended to rise again. This may 

 have had some effect in slo\ving the rate of relative- 

 consumption increase, but the evidence certainly 

 is not conclusive. 



Pulpwood Use Depends on Type of 

 Woodpulp Made 



The quantity of woodpulp obtainable from a 

 cord of wood depends upon the pulping process 

 used and also upon the density and other physical 

 characteristics of the wood. In recent years, the 

 average number of cords of pulpwood consumed 

 per ton of woodpulp produced has been increasing 

 (table 256). This primarily reflects an increase 

 in the production of bleached pulps, which use (as 

 the result of more processing) more wood per ton 

 of pulp produced (table 257). 



In the future, some further rise in the production 

 of bleached pulps is expected, particularly for 

 sulfate pulp. This wiU tend to increase wood use; 

 but improved efficiency in processing equipment, a 

 shift to the high-yield pulping processes, and 

 greater use of the high-density hardwoods will 

 offset this increase and tend to lower average 

 pulpwood use per ton of woodpulp produced from 

 1.63 cords in 1955 to about 1.5 in 1975. 



With consideration of these factors, the 1975 

 medium estimates of new woodpulp requirements 



