448 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



Table 261. — Consumption of veneer logs and bolts 

 in relation to consumption of all physical-structure 

 materials, specified years, 1906-55 





Esti- 

 mated 

 consump- 

 tion of 



Per 

 capita 

 consump- 

 tion of 



Index 

 of per 

 capita 

 consump- 

 tion of 



Index 

 of per 

 capita 

 consump- 

 tion of all 



Rela- 

 tive 

 consump- 

 tion of 



Year 



veneer 



veneer 



veneer 



physical- 



logs 

 and 



bolts 3 

 (1947 = 



100.0) 





logs 



and 



bolts 1 



logs 

 and 

 bolts 



logs 



and 



bolts 



(1947 = 



100.0) 



structure 

 mate- 

 rials 2 

 (1947 = 

 100.0) 





Million 













hoard- 



Board- 









1906 



feet 

 329 



feet 

 3.85 



35. 4 



96. 9 



36. 5 



1907 



349 



4. 01 



36.8 



87.5 



42. 1 



1908 



383 



4. 32 



39.7 



85.9 



46. 2 



1909 



436 



4.82 



44. 3 



90. 9 



48.7 



1919 



577 



5.52 



50.7 



79.9 



63.5 



1921 



400 



3.69 



33.9 



61. 4 



55. 2 



1923 



646 



5.77 



53. 



90. 



58.9 



1925 



735 



6. 35 



58.3 



90.3 



64. 6 



1927 



962 



8.08 



74. 2 



81. 5 



91. 



1929 



1, 113 



9. 14 



83. 9 



89.0 



94. 3 



1931 



696 



5. 61 



51.5 



73.0 



70.5 



1933 



700 



5. 57 



51. 1 



53. 3 



95. 9 



1935 



824 



6. 47 



59. 4 



64. 6 



92. 



1937 



1, 114 



8.64 



79.3 



97. 2 



81. 6 



1939 



1, 194 



9. 11 



83.7 



83.7 



100. 



1942 



1,736 



12. 87 



118. 2 



116. 



101.9 



1943 



1,594 



11. 66 



107. 1 



102.2 



104.8 



1944 



1, 533 



11. 08 



101. 7 



106. 7 



95. 3 



1945 



1, 404 



10. 03 



92. 1 



93. 4 



98.6 



1947 



1,570 



10.89 



100.0 



100. 



100. 



1951 



2,271 



14. 71 



135. 1 



107. 2 



126. 



1952 



2,467 



15.71 



144. 3 



118.5 



121.8 



1953 



2,815 

 2, 878 

 3,431 



17. 63 



17. 72 

 20.76 



161. 9 



162. 7 

 190. 6 







1954 







1955 













' Forest Service estimates based on Bureau of the 

 Census data. 



2 U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

 Census. Raw Materials in the United States Economy, 

 1900-1952, p. 60. Washington, D. C. 1954. 



' Obtained by dividing the index of per capita consump- 

 tion of veneer logs and bolts by the corresponding index of 

 per capita consumption of all physical-structure materials. 



The medium and upper projections of demand 

 for veneer logs and bolts — based on the assumption 

 that prices of veneer and veneer products will 

 follow a trend roughly parallel to price of compet- 

 ing materials — are obtained by adding together 

 the above estimates of softwood and hardwood log 

 and bolt requirements. The lower projections, 

 on the other hand, are based on the assumption 

 that the price of timber pi'oducts will rise faster 

 than the price of competing materials. 



An increase in price may stimulate substitution 

 of nonwood materials for veneer products to a 

 certain extent. But more important, it will prob- 

 ably stimulate substitution of other timber prod- 

 ucts such as hardboard and particle board, which 



can be made from mill residues and from wood not 

 suitable for most other industrial uses. The 

 relation of the price of plywood to price of lumber, 

 on the one hand, and to the price of wood-fiber 

 boards, on the other hand, wiU probabh' have more 

 to do with future demand for veneer products 

 than the price of competing nonwood materials. 



Projections of future demand for veneer logs 

 and bolts in 1975 and 2000 are summarized as 

 follows: 



Billion 

 board-feet 



Consumption in 1952 2,647 



Projections to 1975: 



Lower 5, 000 



Medium 5, 670 



Projections to 2000: 



Lower 7,. 500 



Medium 9, 000 



Upper 10, 500 



The medium and lower projections for 1975 

 represent increases from 1952 of 89 and 114 

 percent respectively. For 2000, the increases 

 over 1952 are 183, 240, and 297 percent respec- 

 tively for the lower, medium, and upper projec- 

 tions. While these percentage increases appear 

 to be rather generous, a substantial increase had 

 already occurred by 1955. 



Demand for softwood veneer logs and bolts 

 is expected to rise more rapidly than demand for 

 hardwood products. The softwood proportion 

 represented 62 percent of consiunption in 1952. 

 By 1975 and 2000, the softwood products are 

 expected to account for 70 percent of total demand 

 for veneer logs and bolts. 



FUTURE DEMAND FOR MINOR IN- 

 DUSTRIAL-WOOD PRODUCTS 



Minor industrial-wood products (minor in the 

 sense that no one of them represents a large vol- 

 ume of wood in comparison with lumber, pulp- 

 wood, or veneer logs) include cooperage logs 

 and bolts, piling, poles, fence posts, hewn ties, 

 round mine timbers, and a miscellaneous assort- 

 ment of other products. '^^ The volume of logs 

 and bolts used in production of these minor prod- 

 ucts in 1952 amounted to 699 million cubic feet, 

 or slightly less than 7 percent of all industrial 

 wood consumed. 



Medium and lower projections of demand in 

 1975 are made for each product, but for 2000 all 

 of the projections are made only for the group 

 as a whole. As before, the medium and upper 

 projections assume that the future price of timber 

 products will rise no faster than the price of sub- 

 stitute materials. The lower projection assumes 

 a substantial rise in relative price, which pre- 

 smnably would result in lowering the demand 



'^* Such as bolts for turnery products, wood for making 

 charcoal, shingle bolts, and furnace poles. 



