FUTURE DEMAND FOR TIMBER 



463 



increase in imports is expected to be confined 

 largely to imports of tropical hardwoods. Net 

 imports of softwood veneer logs and bolts are not 

 expected to change appreciably. 



Summary of Anticipated Net Import 

 Position of All Timber Products in 

 1975 AND 2000 



Lumber, pulpwood and pulpwood products, 

 and veneer logs and veneer products make up the 

 great bulk of United States international trade in 

 timber products. Various other products such as 

 poles, piling, shingle bolts, hewn ties, and many 

 other items regularly entering the international 

 trade are inconsequential and have not been 

 considered in arriving at the net import figures 

 for timber products which follow. 



Net imports of timber products are expected to 

 rise from 1,176 million cubic feet in 1952 to 1,661 

 million cubic feet in 1975 and to 1,787 million 

 cubic feet in 2000 (table 273). In the future, as 

 in the past, softwoods will probably comprise the 

 major share of lumber, pulpwood, and pulpwood 

 product imports (table 274). For all products 

 combined, the increase in net imports (roundwood 

 equivalent) implied by these estimates amounts 

 to 41 percent during the period 1952-75 and to 52 

 percent during the period 1952-2000. 



SUMMARY OF PROJECTED DE- 

 MANDS FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 

 AND ESTIMATES OF THE TIMBER 

 CUT REQUIRED TO MEET THEM 



The foregoing projections of future demand 

 imply that the market outlook for most timber 

 products should be highly favorable. Large in- 

 creases in demand are indicated for pulpwood and 

 for veneer logs and bolts. Even in the case of 

 saw logs and minor products, the rise in demand 

 may be considerable. Fuelwood is the only major 

 product for which a rather drastic decrease in 

 demand is expected (table 275). The market 

 prospect offers a challenging opportunity for both 

 forest land managers and the forest industries. 



The medium projections of demand for each 

 product are the basic estimates. These rest on 

 the assumptions that the Nation will enjoj' con- 

 tinued peace and prosperity, that population will 

 increase to 215 million by 1975 and 275 million by 

 2000, that the price of industrial wood will gener- 

 ally parallel the price of competing materials, and 

 that industrial wood will maintain its present 

 relative position in the national economy. 



Expressed in terms of roundwood (logs and 

 bolts), the various medium projections of demand 

 for timber products add up to totals of 16.2 



billion cubic feet by 1975, and 22.4 billion cubic 

 feet by 2000 (table 276). Compared with the 



12.3 billion cubic feet of timber products con- 

 sumed in 1952, these totals are 32 and 83 percent 

 higher, respectively. But on a per capita basis, 

 the projected changes in demand are relatively 

 small — 75 cubic feet in 1975 and 82 cubic feet in 

 2000, as against 78 cubic feet consumed in 1952. 

 Considering industrial wood only, however, the 

 projected per capita demand amounts to 72 cubic 

 feet by 1975 and 80 cubic feet by 2000 or 7 and 15 

 cubic feet respectively above 1952 consumption. 



The upper projection of demand for timber prod- 

 ucts rests on the same basic assumptions as the 

 medium projection except that population is as- 

 sumed to reach 360 million by 2000. Projected 

 demand by 2000, under these assumptions, may 

 be approximately 26.2 billion cubic feet — 17 per- 

 cent above the medium projection and 114 per- 

 cent above 1952 consumption. But large as it 

 appears to be, this estimate allows for a per capita 

 demand of onl}^ 73 cubic feet against the 78 cubic 

 feet consumed in 1952. Per capita demand for 

 industrial wood at the upper projection for 2000 

 is about 71 cubic feet as compared with 65 cubic 

 feet in 1952. 



The lower projected demand is based on the same 

 population and gross national product assump- 

 tions as the emdium projection. But future prices 

 of timber products are assumed to rise substan- 

 tially faster than prices of competing materials. 

 Under these assumptions, lower projected demand 

 for timber products may be in the vicinity of 14.2 

 billion cubic feet by 1975 and 17.9 billion cubic 

 feet by 2000. Comparable estimates for indus- 

 trial wood are 13.4 billion cubic feet by 1975 and 



17.4 billion by 2000—13 and 21 percent less, re- 

 spectively, than medium projected demand, but 

 30 and 70 percent more, respectively, than indus- 

 trial wood consumption in 1952. These lower pro- 

 jections of demand for industrial wood imply a 

 drop in per capita consumption from 65 cubic feet 

 in 1952 to 62 and 63 cubic feet, respectively, by 

 1975 and 2000. Thus they imply a declining role 

 for wood in the national economy. 



If all three projections of demand are compared 

 in terms of change from 1952, the results are as 

 follows : 



Percent change 



Industrial 



All 



Medium projection: wood Fuelwood products 



1975 +50 -59 -1-32 



2000 +114 -74 +83 



Upper projection: 



2000 +150 -74 +114 



Lower projection: 



1975 +30 -59 +16 



2000 +70 -74 +46 



In terms of per capita demand for industrial wood, 

 the same comparison shows increases over 1952 

 consumption of about 10 percent for the medium 

 projection by 1975 and 22 percent by 2000. The 



