466 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



increase for the upper projection by 2000 is 9 per- 

 cent. Under the lower projection, per capita de- 

 mand decreases from 1952 consumption — 5 per- 

 cent by 1975 and about 3 percent by 2000. De- 

 creases in per capita demand for fuelwood amount 

 to 70 percent by 1975 and 85 to 90 percent by 

 2000. 



Per capita demand, in cubic feel 



Industrial All 



wood Fuelwood products 



Consumption in 1952 65. 4 12. 8 78. 2 



Medium projection: 



1975 71.6 3.8 75.3 



2000 79.7 1.9 81.6 



Upper projection: 



2000 71.4 1.4 72.8 



Lower projection: 



1975 62.2 3.8 66.0 



2000 63.3 1.9 65.2 



Future Demands Expected To Be 

 Partly Met Through Increased 

 Imports 



The foregoing summaries of projected demand 

 for timber products include timber products that 

 will be obtained from sources outside the United 

 States and Alaska. For hundreds of years this 

 country has traded timber products for the goods 

 of other countries; some timber products were im- 

 ported, but exports exceeded imports. But in 

 more recent times, the United States has become 

 the world's largest importing nation as far as 

 timber products are concerned. In 1952 imports 

 of timber products exceeded exports by the equiya- 

 lent of 1.2 billion cubic feet of roundwood. Thus, 

 about 10 percent of that year's total consumption 

 was accounted for by net imports. 



This international trade position is expected to 

 continue. By 1975, net imports may increase to 

 1.7 billion cubic feet; by 2000 they may be as 

 much as 1.8 billion cubic feet. If net imports rise 

 to these ley els they may include: 



Product: '932 wrs 2000 



Lumber billion bd. -ft _ _ 1.8 3 3 



Pulpwood and pulpwood products 



million cords _ _ 11.2 14 15 

 Veneer logs and veneer products 



million bd.-ft_- 180 630 930 



When the estimates of projected demand (table 

 275) are reduced by the yolume of net imports 

 and adjusted for changes in stocks, the remaining 

 yolumes are estimates of the domestic output of logs 

 and bolts required to meet projected demands for 

 timber products (table 277). 



Timber Cut Required To Meet Future 

 Projected Demands for Domestic 

 Timber Products 



Starting with the estimates of domestic output, 

 the final step in the analysis is to calculate the 

 annual cuts of growing stock and liye sawtimber 

 needed to meet projected demands for timber 

 products in 1975 and 2000. This calculation re- 

 quires consideration of (a) the yolume of product 

 obtained from plant residues; (b) the extent to 

 which dead and cull trees, trees on noncommercial 

 forest land, and trees on nonforest land are util- 

 ized; and (c) the degree to which timber cut is 

 actually utilized for products. All of these factors 

 are related to economic conditions and technolo- 

 gical progress in the forest industries. 



The forest industries have made substantial 

 progress in using more of the less desirable timber 

 and in making more complete use of the trees that 

 are cut. Further progress, resulting in increased 

 timber-products output with commensurate de- 

 creases in timber cut per unit of product output, is 

 expected. There are, of course, some obstacles: 

 for example, declining ayerage tree size in the 

 West points toward an increasing yolume of tim- 

 ber cut per board-foot of lumber produced. 

 Neyertheless, estimates from eyery region antici- 

 pate a net improyement in utilization during the 

 years ahead. That improyement — and the "say- 

 ings" that would result from it — are reflected in 

 the calculations of the timber cut required to meet 

 projected demand for timber products. 



Converting Factors Are Used 



The transition from demand for timber products 

 to timber cut may be illustrated by the 1952 data 

 for softwood pulpwood output and timber cut. 

 In that year 31.3 million cords of softwood pulp- 

 wood were consumed in the United States and 

 Coastal Alaska, including the equiyalent of lOJ 

 million cords of net imports from abroad, in the 

 forms of paper, paperboard, woodpulp, and pulp- 

 wood. The consumption of pulpwfood cut from 

 forests of the United States thus amounted to 20.6 

 million cords. During that year, softwood pulp- 

 wood stocks on hand increased 0.8 million cords. 

 Adding this to consumption indicates that the 

 total output of softwood pulpwood from the 

 forests of the United States was 21.4 million cords. 



The ulihzation factors for softwood pulpwood 

 in 1952 are the quantities of growing stock or liye 



