TIMBER SUPPLY OUTLOOK 



481 



EASTERN HARDWOODS 



22.0 



1952 



LOWER 



EASTERN SOFTWOODS 



1952 



WESTERN SPECIES 



LOWER 



MEDIUM 



25.0 



1952 LOWER 



figures are billions of board-feet 



Figure 133 



MEDIUM 



In 2000, the needed growth of 105.4 billion 

 board-feet of all species is at about the same gen- 

 eral level as the realizable growth of 100.7 billion. 

 The small difference between the two estimates is 

 probably not significant in a statistical sense, and 

 the comparison indicates that the growth neces- 

 sary to permanently sustain medium level demands 

 for sawtimber in 2000 is about the same as the 

 growth that would be attained in due course if all 

 commercial forest land, on the average, was placed 

 under the better forest management in effect at the 

 present time. Needed growth of eastern hard- 

 wood sawtimber is slightly less than realizable 

 growth of this species group. However, needed 

 growth of eastern softwoods and western species 

 by 2000 exceeds realizable growth by 3.5 and 2.6 

 billion board-feet, respectively. 



The comparison of realizable growth and needed 

 growth suggests that if medium level demands for 

 sawtimber are to be supplied permanently the 

 intensity of forestry must be greatly increased. 

 On lands best able to adopt improved methods, 

 the intensity of forestry must exceed the better 

 present day practices in order to balance the 

 deficiencies of needed growth on lands where such 

 practices will not be attained. 



Growth of eastern hardwood growing stock in 

 1952 is considerably more than enough to satisfy 

 needed growth in 1975 but falls slightly short by 

 2000 when a 4-percent increase will be needed. 

 Increases in needed growth of eastern softwood 

 growing stock are 30 percent for 1975 and 89 per- 

 cent for 2000. For western species, corresponding 

 increases are 57 percent and 129 percent. For all 

 species groups combined, increases in needed 

 growth of growing stock are 3 percent in 1975 and 

 55 percent in 2000. 



Realizable growth of growing stock exceeds 

 needed growth in the year 2000 for all three species 

 groups. This indicates the likelihood that medium 

 level demands for products made from trees below 

 sawtimber size can be met more easily than 

 demands for products requiring sawtimber. 

 Nevertheless, because more than 80 percent of 

 total demand requires trees of sawtimber size, 

 sustaining projected demands depends largely on 

 producing needed growtli of sawtimber rather than 

 needed growth of growing stock. 



Lower Projections 



Estimates of demand at the lower level reflect 

 a continued decline in per capita consumption of 

 industrial wood as a whole, and also a decline in 

 the use of wood in relation to competing materials. 

 Moreover prices of industrial wood would rise 

 faster than prices of competing materials. 



At this lower level of demand, needed growth 

 of sawtimber in 1975 will be 24 percent more than 

 growth in 1952 and 67 percent more in 2000 (table 

 285). Needed growth of eastern hardwoods in 



