TIMBER SUPPLY OUTLOOK 



483 



It seems apparent that balances between tim- 

 ber removal and needed growth for western 

 species and eastern softwoods will not be possible 

 by 2000 if demands for timber are met at either 

 of the two levels. The major objective of produc- 

 ing sufficient needed growth to sustain timber 

 removal can be reached on a national basis only 

 to the extent that an unavoidable deficit in needed 

 growth of western species can be balanced by a 

 growth surplus of eastern softwoods. 



For eastern hardwoods, realizable growth ex- 

 ceeds the needed growth necessary to support 

 timber removal at either level of demand. With 

 softwoods occupying the key position m the na- 

 tional timber economy, it is essential that a sur- 

 plus growth of eastern softwoods be maintained 

 until adjustments in western forests, discussed 

 next, are completed. This is perhaps the most 

 important finding resulting from comparisons of 

 needed growth and timber removal. 



Adjustments of Inventory Essential 



Current inventories of live standing timber will 

 require major adjustments if needed growth is 

 to be reached and sustained. The needed inven- 

 tory of standing sawtimber for all species groups 

 combined should increase about one-third by 

 2000 if medium level demands are to be sustained 

 (table 287). This total adjustment obscures the 

 proportionately greater inventory increases that 

 are needed for eastern species groups and the re- 

 duction indicated for western species. For ex- 

 ample, if the sawtimber inventory in 2000 is to 

 produce the growth needed to sustain medium 



level demands, there must be inventory increases 

 of 300 percent for eastern softwoods and 100 

 percent for eastern hardwoods. In contrast, the 

 inventory of western species could be about 

 one-fourth less than the 1953 inventory if age- 

 class adjustments are accomplished. 



For the lower level of demand, the inventory 

 necessary to sustain needed growth of sawtimber 

 in 2000 will be 8 percent less than the 1953 inven- 

 tory. For individual species groups inventory 

 increases of 147 percent for eastern softwoods and 

 32 percent for eastern hardwoods would be needed 

 while a decrease of 45 percent for western species 

 could still produce the needed growth. 



The reduced inventories indicated for western 

 species will produce the needed growth only if 

 adjustments in the condition of the inventory 

 accompany the reductions. For example, 41 

 percent of all commercial forest land and two- 

 thirds of the area in sawtimber stands in the West 

 and Coastal Alaska together, consist of old-growth 

 timber stands (see appendix, Basic Statistics, 

 table 20). These contain much overmature and 

 decadent timber, mortality is high, and net gi'owth 

 very low. 



The needed growth of western species cannot be 

 produced and sustained until the old growth is 

 harvested and replaced by thrifty, rapidly grow- 

 ing timber with individual trees or stands of all 

 ages more equally distributed than at present. 

 Although prompt and adequate replacement of 

 western old growth is vital to attainment of 

 needed growth, it will inevitably result in reduc- 

 tions of inventory during the rest of this century. 

 A contrasting situation exists in the East. Here 

 inventories are already depleted because of heavy 



Table 287. — Relation of timber inventory in 1953 to needed inventory, 1975 and 2000, by levels of demand 



and species groups 





Live sawtimber 



Growing stock 



Item 



Inventory 

 1953 



Needed in- 

 ventory 



Change from 

 1953 



Inventory 

 1953 



Needed in- 

 ventory 



Change from 

 1953 





1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 



Medium level demand: 

 Eastern hardwoods 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 381 

 242 

 1,434 



Billion 



bd.-ft. 



482 



635 



691 



Billion 



bd.-ft. 



769 



970 



1,057 



Percent 



+ 27 



+ 162 



-52 



Percent 



+ 102 



+ 301 



-26 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 



151 

 74 



292 



Billion 



cu. ft. 



114 



124 



178 



Billion 



cu. ft. 



186 



181 



260 



Percent 

 -25 

 + 68 

 -39 



Percent 

 + 23 



Eastern softwoods 



+ 145 



Western species 



-11 







All species 



2,057 



1,088 



2,796 



-12 



+ 36 



517 



416 



627 



-20 



+ 21 







Lower level demand: 

 Eastern hardwoods 



381 



242 



1,434 



358 

 449 

 597 



503 



598 

 793 



-6 



+ 86 

 -58 



+ 32 



+ 147 



-45 



151 



74 

 292 



104 

 110 

 158 



152 

 147 

 212 



-31 

 + 49 

 -46 



+ 1 



Eastern softwoods 



+ 99 



Western species 



-27 







All species - -. 



2,057 



1,404 



1,894 



-32 



-8 



517 



372 



511 



-28 



-1 







