TIMBER SUPPLY OUTLOOK 



487 



Table 291. — Relation of net growth 1952 to projected growth 1975 and 2000, by levels of demand and species 



groups 





Live sawtimber 



Growing stock 



Item 



Net 



growth 



1952 



Projected net 

 growth 



Change from 

 1952 



Net 



growth 



1952 



Projected net 

 growth 



Change from 

 1952 





1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 



1975 



2000 



Medium level demand: 

 Eastern hardwoods 



Billion 



bd.-ft. 



19. 1 



17.0 



11.3 



Billion 



bd.-ft. 



22. 6 



20. 1 



15. 9 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 



12.2 



(') 



13. 



Percent 

 + 18 

 + 18 



+ 41 



Percent 

 -36 



+ 15 



Billion 



cu. ft. 



7.0 



4. 4 



2. 8 



Billion 



cu. ft. 



8.7 



4. 6 



3.6 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 



7.9 

 . 6 



3. 7 



Percent 



+ 24 



+ 5 



+ 29 



Percent 

 + 13 



Eastern softwoods 



-86 



Western species 



+ 32 







All species 



47. 4 



58. 6 



25.2 



+ 24 



-47 



14.2 



16. 9 



12. 2 



+ 19 



-14 







Lower level demand: 

 Eastern hardwoods 



19. 1 

 17.0 

 11.3 



24. 1 

 20. 7 

 16. 3 



25.6 

 23.0 

 18. 1 



+ 26 



+ 22 



+ 44 



+ 34 

 + 35 

 + 60 



7. 

 4. 4 

 2.8 



9. 1 

 5. 4 

 3.7 



9.4 

 5. 5 

 4. 2 



+ 30 

 + 23 

 + 32 



+ 34 



Eastern softwoods ^ 



+ 25 



Western species 



+ 50 







All species 



47. 4 



61. 1 



66. 7 



+ 29 



+ 41 



14. 2 



18. 2 



19. 1 



+ 28 



+ 35 







' Negligible. 



growth of sawtimber, they show only that medium 

 level demands for products that require pole 

 timber would be more easily met than demands for 

 products that require sawtimber. 



Lower Level Demand Results in Growth 

 Increase 



Under assumptions of the lower demand level, 

 projected sawtimber growth will increase steadily 

 from 47.4 billion board-feet in 1952 to 66.7 billion 

 board-feet in 2000 (table 291). This increase of 

 41 percent contrasts sharply with the decrease in 

 growth projected under medium level demand 

 assumptions. Projected growth of both eastern 

 softwoods and eastern hardwoods in 2000 will be 

 about one-third greater than growth in 1952, while 

 the increase for western species will be 60 percent. 



Projected growth of growing stock in 2000 will 

 be 19.1 billion cubic feet, compared with the 1952 

 growth of 14.2 billion. For western species, the 

 increase in projected growth is 50 percent of 1952 

 growth. Increases in projected growth for eastern 

 hardwoods and eastern softwoods will be 34 

 percent and 25 percent, respectively. 



The marked contrast in projected growth for 

 medium and lower demand levels is attributable 

 to large differences in timber removal, since 

 assumptions as to progress in forestry were 

 identical. Timber removal at the medium level 

 exceeds removal at the lower level by ever increas- 

 ing amounts. In 1975, the timber removal of 

 68.2 billion board-feet needed to suppl}^ medium 

 level demands for sawtimber is about 9 billion 

 board-feet more than the removal of 58.8 billion 



- Because projected growth is negligible, the theoretical 

 percentage change would approach a minus 100 percent. 



board-feet necessary to satisfy lower level de- 

 mands (table 283). By 2000, timber removal 

 under the medium level demand would be 105.4 

 billion board-feet, or 26 billion board-feet more 

 than the lower level estimate of 79.3 billion board- 

 feet. An increasing excess of timber removal 

 coupled with a projected growth less than removal 

 for the entire projection period results in rapid 

 inventory reductions under medium demands and 

 a consequent declining ability of the reduced 

 inventory to produce growth. 



Needed Growth Compared to Pro- 

 jected Growth 



The comparison of trends of projected growth 

 with growth in 1952, just presented, is of much 

 less significance than the relation between pro- 

 jected growth and the growth needed to sustain 

 estimated demands. In the following paragraphs 

 comparisons are made between needed growth 

 and projected growth for the medium and lower 

 demand levels. These comparisons are the most 

 important presented in this section, and they 

 provide the basis for judging the relative ease or 

 difficulty of supplying projected demands dm"ing 

 the remainder of this century. 



Medium Level Projected Growth Far 

 Short of Needed Growth 



Although projected growth of sawtimber under 

 medium level demand assumptions increases for 

 a time after 1952, it fails to keep pace with needed 



