488 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



growth and by 1975 is 14 percent less than the 

 growth needed to sustain demands (table 292). 

 For both eastern softwoods and western species, 

 projected growth falls short of needed growth by 

 29 percent and 27 percent, respectively. For 

 eastern hardwoods, projected growth is more than 

 enough to meet medium level demands in 1975. 



After 1975, the sharp drop in projected growth 

 would be accompanied by increasing scarcity of 

 some species and some kinds of products, prices 

 would rise and consumption slacken. The re- 

 duced timber removal would tend to modify the 

 decline in projected growth. Price increases and 

 the existence of obvious scarcities would stimulate 

 more intensive forestry. This, in turn, would also 

 eventually increase growth above the trends indi- 

 cated by projections. For these reasons, it is 

 likely that timber removal will fall below the level 

 needed to supply projected demands for sawtim- 

 ber, and growth will not decline as sharply as 

 projections indicate (fig. 134). 



The time at which these more likelv trends 



would occm- and the extent to which timber re- 

 moval and projected growth would be affected are 

 difficult to estimate. However, consideration of 

 both the projections and the more likely trends 

 indicate that demands at the medium level cannot 

 be met and sustained unless forestry is intensified 

 far beyond what can be expected from continua- 

 tion of recent forestry trends. Moreover, since the 

 effects of forestry on growth are long delayed, 

 early achievement of such intensification is essen- 

 tial if medium level demands are to be sustained. 

 Growth trends projected for growing stock are 

 similar to those for sawtimber although not so 

 pronounced. In 1975 projected growth would 

 exceed needed growth by 16 percent but by 2000 

 would be 45 percent less than needed growth. 

 Although projected growth of eastern hardwoods 

 exceeds needed growth in both 1975 and 2000, pro- 

 jected growth of both eastern softwoods and 

 western species is about 20 percent less than 

 needed growth in 1975 with still greater deficits 

 bv 2000. 



Table 292. — Relation of projected growth to needed growth 1976 and 2000, by levels of demand and species 



groups 





Live sawtimber 



Growing stock 



Item 



Projected 

 growth 



Needed 

 growth 



Projected 

 in relation 

 to needed 



Projected 

 growth 



Needed 

 growth 



Projected 

 in relation 

 to needed 



Medium level demand: 

 1975: 



Eastern hardwoods 



Eastern softwoods - - 



Billion 



bd.-ft. 

 22.6 

 20. 1 

 15.9 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 18.3 

 28. 2 

 2L7 



Percent 

 + 23 

 -29 

 -27 



Billion 



cu. ft. 

 8. 7 

 4.6 

 3.6 



Billion 



cu. ft. 

 4. 5 

 5.7 

 4. 4 



Percent 

 + 93 

 -19 



Western species _ - - - . - 



-18 







All species 



58.6 



68.2 



-14 



16. 9 



14. 6 



+ 16 







2000: 



Eastern hardwoods 



12. 2 



13. 



29. 1 

 43. 1 

 33. 2 



-58 

 -61 



7.9 



. 6 

 3. 7 



7.3 



8.3 

 6. 4 



+ 8 



Eastern softwoods 



Western species 



-93 

 -42 



All species . 



25.2 



105. 4 



-76 



12.2 



22.0 



-45 







Lower level demand: 

 1975: 



Eastern hardwoods - . . _ . 



24. 1 

 20. 7 

 16. 3 



15. 6 

 24. 4 

 18. 8 



+ 54 

 -15 

 -13 



9. 1 

 5. 4 

 3. 7 



4. 1 

 5.0 

 3. 9 



+ 122 



Eastern softwoods 



+ 8 



Western species 



-5 



All species 



61. 1 



58.8 



+ 4 



18.2 



13.0 



+ 40 



2000: 



Eastern hardwoods 



Eastern softwoods 



25. 6 

 23.0 

 18. 1 



22. 

 32. 3 

 25. 



+ 16 

 -29 

 -28 



9.4 

 5. 5 

 4. 2 



6.0 

 6. 8 

 5.2 



+ 57 

 -19 



Western species. _ 



-19 







All species 



66. 7 



79. 3 



-16 



19. 1 



18. 



+ 6 



' Negligible. 



* Because projected growth is negligible, the theoretical difference would apuroach a minus 100 percent. 



