490 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AMERICA'S FUTURE 



80 

 H- 70 



uu 



LU 

 U_ 



1 



-a: 

 o 



Z 60 



o 

 oo 



o 



= 50 



40 

 19 













/--" 



this is the timber 

 removal required 

 to meet the lower 



""^V 



level demand ^^^^^^ 



#^ 



this would be the effect of 

 the above timber removal and 

 continued recent forestry 



-^^^^^^ 





trends on net growth 



52 1965 1975 1985 2000 



year 



Figure 135 



2000. Projected growth of both eastern softwoods 

 and western species would be about 15 percent less 

 than needed growth in 1975 and about 30 percent 

 less in 2000. 



The surplus of hardwood sawtimber growth sug- 

 gests that softwood deficits through 1975 could be 

 reduced by substitution of hardwoods. To the 

 extent that it can be foreseen, substitution of hard- 

 woods for softwoods was made in projecting de- 

 mands for timber products (see section on Future 

 Demand for Timber). A still greater use of hard- 

 woods would mean early and significant shifts to 

 them in construction and other uses for which 

 softwoods have been long established as the 

 superior material. Such a degree of increased 

 substitution would require a rapid and material 

 change in the wood-using habits of the Nation. 



Trends of projected growth and needed growth 

 after 1975 lead to a deficit of more than 12 billion 

 board-feet by 2000 and indicate that lower level 

 assumptions may eventually result in a decline of 

 timber supplies similar to that projected for the 

 medium level. 



In sununarizing sawtimber relations these com- 

 parisons of projected growth and needed growth 



indicate that (a) through 1975, lower level demands 

 can be met reasonably well but at the risk of 

 growing shortages, particularly in softwood sup- 

 plies; and (b) an increasing growth deficit will 

 begin after 1975 and may result in more signifi- 

 cant shortages of softwoods before 2000 and of 

 all species groups thereafter, unless forestry trends 

 can be accelerated beyond those expected from 

 recent forestry developments. 



For growing stock, projected growth at the lower 

 level of demand will exceed needed growth for 

 the rest of this century, although the growth 

 surplus of 40 percent in 1975 will shrink to 6 

 percent by 2000. Projected growth of eastern 

 hardwood growing stock will remain substantiallj' 

 higher than needed growth in both 1975 and 2000, 

 but by 2000 projected growth of both eastern 

 softwoods and western species will be 19 percent 

 less than needed growth. Thus, future growth 

 trends for growing stock are similar to those for 

 sawtimber, but deficits in the growth of softwoods 

 are smaller and the prospects of softwood short- 

 ages, although present, are less acute than for saw- 

 timber. 



