TIMBER SUPPLY OUTLOOK 



491 



Sustained Removal Falls Below 

 Lower Level Demands 



The growth relations presented thus far show 

 that the intensity of forestry expected from con- 

 tinuation of recent trends will not produce suffi- 

 cient growth to meet and sustain demands at 

 either the medium or lower levels to the end of 

 the century. However, the approximate balance 

 between projected growth and needed growth 

 through 1975 at the lower level of demand suggests 

 projections of the removal of sawtimber that 

 could be sustained by projected growth beyond 

 1975 if forestry continues to progress as indicated 

 by recent trends. 



The approximate balance of projected growth 

 and needed growth in 1975 for all species combined 

 is the result of a growth surplus of more than 8 

 billion board-feet for eastern hardwoods and a 

 deficit of 6 billion board-feet for eastern soft- 

 woods and western species combined (table 292). 

 As previously shown, trends of growth projected 

 for the period after 1975 for lower level demands 

 indicate that by 2000 the growth surplus of eastern 

 hardwoods would be reduced to 3.6 billion board- 

 feet and the growth deficits of eastern softwoods 

 and western species combined would increase to 

 16.2 billion board-feet. This would leave a 

 deficit for all species combined of more than 12 

 billion board-feet. 



In view of these trends, the timber removal 

 that could be sustained for each species group 

 would be substantially different than the timber 

 removal for each group needed to supply lower 

 level demands. If an approximate balance be- 

 tween removal and growth is to be maintained 

 after 1975 for all species combined, timber 

 removal would need to be increased for eastern 

 hardwoods above that indicated by lower demands 

 and reduced for eastern softwoods and western 

 species. 



The trends assumed in timber removal were 

 that (a) timber removal of eastern hardwoods 

 would increase sufficiently after 1975 to be in 

 balance with projected growth of this species 

 group by 1985 and thereafter; (b) timber removal 

 of eastern softwoods and western species together 

 would be reduced sufficiently after 1975 to balance 

 the combined growth of these species groups by 

 1985, and after that would increase only as the 

 combined growth of the two species groups in- 

 creased; and (c) allocations of timber removal 

 would be greater than growth of western species 

 and less than growth of eastern softwoods to 

 eventually achieve necessary adjustments of in- 

 ventory for each species group. These allocations 

 were made in the same proportions as the timber 

 removal allocations of the lower projection. The 

 combination of these proportions and the above 



assumptions resulted in a timber removal of west- 

 ern species for 1985 that was lower than for 1975. 

 On the basis of these assumptions, projected 

 growth would sustain a timber removal gradually 

 increasing from 59 billion board-feet in 1975 to 

 72 billion board-feet in 2000 (table 293 and fig. 

 136). Achievement of this increase would be 

 accompanied by substantial changes in both the 

 pattern of wood use and the volume of sawtimber 

 removal projected as necessary to meet lower 

 level demands. These changes are summarized 

 for the year 2000 as follows: 



Timber 

 removal 



needed to Sustained 



supply lower timber 



level demand removal Difference 



(billion bd.-ft.) (billion bi.-ft.) (percent) 



Softwoods' 57.1 47.7 -16 



Eastern hardwoods 22. 2 24. 5 +10 



Total 79.3 72.2 -9 



' Includes a small volume of western hardwoods. 



These comparisons show that the timber 

 removal which could be sustained by the intensity 

 of forestry expected from continuation of recent 

 trends would be 9 percent less than that needed 

 to meet lower level demands in 2000. Moreover, 

 the reduced removal of softwoods and the in- 

 creased removal of eastern hardwoods reflect a 

 much larger switch from softwoods to hardwoods 

 than was estimated as possible in lower demand 

 projections. 



Inventories Remain Unbalanced 



Earlier comparisons made here between needed 

 inventories and those of 1953 show that sub- 

 stantial adjustments in the inventories of the 

 three species groups are essential if growth is to 

 sustain projected demands to 2000. If projected 

 demands are met and forestry progresses as 

 indicated by recent trends, these adjustments 

 would not occur under either level of demand. 



Under medium level demands, the projected 

 inventory of sawtimber in 1975 would be 7 

 percent greater than needed inventory (table 

 294). This surplus, based on the total inventory 

 of all species, obscures the situation that pro- 

 jected inventory for eastern softwoods would be 

 54 percent less than needed inventory. The 

 inventory of western species would be 66 percent 

 larger than needed inventory, and projected and 

 needed inventories of eastern hardwoods would 

 be about equal. 



After 1975, sharp declines in projected saw- 

 timber inventories of all three species groups 

 would begin as a result of the increasingly large 

 timber removals necessary to meet medium level 

 demands. Indications of the projections are 

 that these declines would be sharper for eastern 

 softwoods and eastern hardwoods than for western 



