TIMBER SUPPLY OUTLOOK 



493 



species. The declines would be modified, as 

 were the declines in projected growth, by rises 

 in price accompanying the trend toward limitations 

 in supply and a consequent reduction in timber 

 removal. 



Under lower level demand, the projected 

 sawtimber inventory of 2,002 billion board-feet 

 for all species in 2000 indicates no substantial 



change from the 1953 inventory of 2,057 billion 

 board-feet and would be slightly larger than the 

 needed inventory. Projected inventories of both 

 eastern hardwoods and western species are larger 

 than needed inventories in 1975 and 2000, but for 

 eastern softwoods the projected inventory is about 

 one-third less than needed inventory during the 

 rest of the century. 



Table 294. — Relation of projected inventory to needM inventory 1975 and 2000, by levels oj demand and 



species groups 





Live sawtimber 



Growing stock 



Item 



Projected 

 inventory 



Needed 

 inventory 



Projected 

 in relation 

 to needed 



Projected 

 inventory 



Needed 

 inventory 



Projected 

 in relation 

 to needed 



Medium level demand: 

 1975: 



Eastern hardwoods. . _ _ 



Billion 



bd.-ft. 

 498 

 292 

 1, 144 



Billion 

 bd.-ft. 

 482 

 635 

 691 



Percent 

 + 3 

 -54 

 + 66 



Billion 

 cu. ft. 



230 

 82 



261 



Billion 



cu. ft. 

 114 

 124 

 178 



Percent 

 + 102 



Eastern softwoods . 



-34 



Western species . . _ _ . 



+ 47 







All species 



1,934 



1,808 



+ 7 



573 



416 



+ 38 







2000: 



Eastern hardwoods. . . 



366 

 602 



769 



970 



1,057 



-52 

 -43 



289 



7 



203 



186 

 181 

 260 



+ 55 



Eastern softwoods . ... 



— 96 



Western species . _ . 



-22 







All species 



968 



2, 796 



-65 



499 



627 



-20 







Lower level demand; 

 1975: 



Eastern hardwoods.. ... 



542 



310 



1, 189 



358 

 449 

 597 



+ 51 

 -31 



+ 99 



241 



96 



267 



104 

 110 

 158 



+ 132 



Eastern softwoods 



-13 



Western species . _ 



+ 69 







All species. 



2,041 



1,404 



+ 45 



604 



372 



+ 62 







2000: 



Eastern hardwoods 



732 

 385 

 885 



503 

 598 

 793 



+ 46 

 -36 



+ 12 



357 

 116 

 236 



152 

 147 

 212 



+ 135 



Eastern softwoods . 



-21 



Western species 



+ 11 







All species. . - . . 



2,002 



1,894 



+ 6 



709 



511 



+ 39 







Negligible. 



Although projected inventories of all species 

 combined appear to be sufficiently large with 

 respect to needed inventories, as shown below, 

 they would not produce the growth needed to 

 sustain demands until 2000 under assumptions of 

 either the medium or lower levels: 



Projected in- 

 ventory in 

 relation to 

 needed inventory 

 (percent) 

 Medium level demand: 



1975 +7 



Lower level demand: 



1975 +45 



2000 +6 



Projected 

 growth in 

 relation to 

 needed growth 

 (percent) 



-14 



+ 4 

 -16 



- Because projected inventory is negligible, the theoret- 

 ical difference would approach a minus 100 percent. 



The major reasons are that (a) because the neces- 

 sary upward adjustment of the eastern softwood 

 inventory of sawtimber would not take place, a 

 shortage of needed growth from that source 

 would result; (b) the young timber established on 

 areas of western old growth harvested between 

 1952 and 2000 would be too young to contribute 

 materially to growth in 2000, and the relatively 

 small area of young timber established prior to 

 1952 plus the remaining area of slow-growing old 

 growth would be inadequate to produce the 

 needed growth of western species. 



Even though projected inventories would not 

 produce the growth needed to sustain the increas- 



. 



