TIMBER SUPPLY OUTLOOK 



495 



of the poor qualitv of the eastern softwood inven- 

 tory in 1952. 



Although supphes of large timber in the in- 

 ventory of western species will help meet quality 

 demands for some yeai-s, timber removal exceeds 

 projected growth under both medium and lower 

 demand levels for the rest of the country. This 

 implies acceleration of the trend toward cutting 

 smaller and poorer quality trees, with consequent 

 declines in the supply of high-quality timber. 



For eastern hardwood sawtimber, projected 

 growth exceeds timber removal in both 1975 and 

 2000 under lower level demand assumptions. 

 This situation favors development of larger trees 

 and improved quality. However, the poor quality 

 of the current inventory would limit the supply of 

 high-quality timber that could be accumulated 

 by the end of the century. Under medium level 

 demands, declining trends in quality of eastern 

 hardwood sawtimber are indicated by the relation 

 between timber removal and projected growth. 



Past trends toward smaller trees, the low 

 quality of eastern inventories, and the relations 

 between projected timber removal and growth 

 indicate that quality of timber will continue to 

 decline if projected demands are met at either 

 level and if forestry progresses no faster than 

 indicated by recent trends. Although advancing 

 technology will help to adapt low-quality trees 

 and logs to end uses previously supplied by higher 

 quality material, the extent to which such advances 

 will meet potential demands is uncertain. The 

 outlook is for limited supplies of high-quality 

 timber unless accelerated trends toward more 

 intensive forestry develop soon and include 

 emphasis on quality aspects as well as the volume 

 of future growth. 



THE TIMBER OUTLOOK 



There has been much progress in forestry in 

 recent years. Growth of sawtimber increased 9 

 percent between 1944 and 1952. The impact of 

 forest fires on the timber resource has been greatly 

 reduced, the annual rate of planting has more 

 than doubled, and there are other indications of 

 progress. The most significant result of this 

 survey, however, is that the intensity of forestry 

 expected from continuation of recent trends will 

 not produce sufficient growth to sustain to the 

 end of the century any one of the three projections 

 of demand. 



If medium projected demands were met over 

 the next two decades, important impacts on the 

 timber resource would occur before the end of the 

 century. Inventories and growth would decline 

 sharply, timber cut would fall well below the level 

 needed to supply projected demands, and there 

 would be limitations in supply of important 

 species and grades of timber. These impacts 

 would be felt first and to the greatest degree in 



eastern softwoods, but eastern hardwoods would 

 also be involved. The overall effects would be: 

 (1) Rising rather than stable prices for industrial 

 wood compared with prices of competing mate- 

 rials; (2) declining rather than increasing per 

 capita consumption; and (3) industrial timber 

 products losing ground in the national economy 

 rather than maintaining their present position. 



Similar impacts would result from meeting 

 either upper or lower projected demands, but there 

 would be dift'erences in the time at which they 

 appeared. If upper demands were met, impacts 

 would appear sooner than under medium level 

 demands, while under lower level demands they 

 would be delayed. By 2000. however, growth of 

 eastern softwoods would be well below the growth 

 needed to sustain projected demands even for the 

 lower level. 



Although meeting projected demands would 

 result in significant impacts on timber resources 

 by the end of the century, there is no danger of a 

 general timber famine. One of the important 

 indications is the 48-percent increase in timber 

 removal between 1952 and 2000 which could be 

 sustained by projected growth. Nevertheless, this 

 removal reflects an increase in use of hardwoods 

 and a reduction in use of softwoods much greater 

 than anticipated as possible in demand projections. 



The total sustained removal, all species com- 

 bined, is 9 percent short of the removal needed 

 to supply lower projected demands in 2000. 

 Sustained removal therefore indicates scarcity 

 but not an acute, widespread shortage. Other 

 indications that a famine is not in prospect are 

 the size of the current inventory in relation to 

 needed timber removal and the great untapped 

 growth capacity of 489 million acres of commercial 

 forest land. 



The intensity of forestry needed to sustain 

 lower projected demands would include stepping 

 up sawtimber growth of all species combined 

 from the 1952 net growth of 47.4 billion board- 

 feet to 79.3 billion board-feet in 2000, an increase 

 of nearly 70 percent. Continuation of recent 

 forestry trends, however, would result in a pro- 

 jected growth of 66.7 billion board-feet, 16 percent 

 less than the growth needed to sustain lower 

 level demands. Because of a substantial growth 

 surplus of eastern hardwoods, this relatively small 

 difference between needed and projected growth 

 of all species groups combined obscures the larger 

 growth increases needed for softwoods. 



For both eastern softwoods and western species, 

 projected growth would be about 30 percent less 

 than the growth needed to sustain lower level 

 demands. The needed additions to projected 

 growth of softwoods could be reduced by using 

 part of the surplus projected growth of eastern 

 hardwoods in place of softwoods. Such substi- 

 tution would mean acceleration of utilization 

 trends beyond the rate anticipated in projections 



