496 



TIMBER RESOURCES FOR AJMERICA'S FUTURE 



of lower level demands. The most probable 

 solution to achievement of lower level demands by 

 2000 would be an increase in projected growth 

 somewhat below needed growth for eastern soft- 

 woods and western species coupled with acceler- 

 ated substitution of hardwoods for softwoods. 



Even if the growth needed to sustain lower pro- 

 jected demands were achieved, per capita con- 

 sumption would decline. For example, one of 

 the fundamental assumptions was that population 

 would increase from 157 million people in 1952 to 

 275 miUion people in 2000. The volume of 

 industrial wood needed to supply lower projected 

 demands in 2000 is 17.41 billion cubic feet as 

 compared to 1952 consumption of 10.27 billion 

 cubic feet. Thus, per capita consumption of 

 industrial wood at the lower demand level would 

 decline from 65.4 cubic feet in 1952 to 63.3 cubic 

 feet in 2000. The decline in per capita consump- 

 tion of liunber would be from 264 board-feet in 

 1952 to 199 board-feet in 2000. Not only would 

 per capita consumption of all industrial products 

 decline but prices would rise faster than prices of 

 competing materials. 



In contrast to the lower level, achievement of 

 medium level demands presents a tremendous 

 task. If medium level demands were met through 

 1975, the growth expected from no more than con- 

 tinuation of recent trends in forestry would 

 begin to drop sharply prior to 2000. To meet 

 and sustain these demands would mean an 

 intensity of forestry sufficient to raise sawtimber 

 growth from the 1952 net growth of 47.4 billion 

 board-feet to 105.4 billion board-feet in 2000, an 

 increase of 122 percent. By species groups, the 



growth increases needed between 1952 and 2000 

 would be 52 percent for eastern hardwoods, 154 

 percent for eastern softwoods, and 194 percent 

 for western species. 



Attainment of this increased growth would 

 permit per capita consumption of all industrial 

 wood to rise from 65.4 cubic feet in 1952 to 80.0 

 cubic feet in 2000. Per capita consumption of 

 Imnber would increase from 264 board-feet, in 

 1952 to 287 board-feet in 2000, and prices for 

 industrial products would be generally parallel to 

 prices of competing materials. 



Past trends toward increasing proportions of 

 small trees in inventories, the low quality of current 

 inventories in the East, and projections of timber 

 removal in excess of projected growth for eastern 

 softwoods and western species toward the end 

 of the centur\- all indicate that further declines 

 in quality are in prospect. Advances in tech- 

 nology^ wiU help to maintain the quality of end 

 products. But with, anticipated trends leading 

 toward limited rather than adequate supplies of 

 high-quality timber, uncertainty surrounds the 

 extent to which potential demands for high- 

 quality products can be met. 



Time is a vital element affecting the timber 

 outlook, and growth increases resulting from 

 intensive forestry are long delayed. Increases in 

 quality require longer periods to achieve than do 

 increases in volume. If demands under either 

 level are to be met and sustained near the end of 

 the century, the trends toward intensive forestry 

 indicated by recent developments must be greatly 

 accelerated during the next two decades. 



