plywood (fig. 19). "Green" laws, labeling, and other aspects of trade in timber 

 products also add to the uncertainties of assessing future global trade patterns. 



Trends in Timber Use and Projected Demands 



Between 1960 and 1980, there was a slight upward trend in lumber consumption, 

 punctuated by well-defined short-term fluctuations (table 1). Demand for lumber 

 follows cycles in new housing starts and other general measures of the economy. For 

 example, the severe recession of the early 1980's caused a decline in housing that 

 forced a drop in lumber demand. This was followed in the mid-1 980's by record 

 consumption that peaked in 1987. From the late 1980's through the early 1990's, new 

 housing starts have been low in comparison with the record years of the 1980's and 

 lumber demand has been depressed (fig. 20). 



Demand for softwood plywood rose rapidly through the 1950's and 1960's, reaching a 

 peak in the early 1970's (table 1). Much of the growth was due to the substitution of 

 plywood for lumber in many end uses. By the 1970's, opportunities for this substitu- 

 tion had largely been captured, and demand for plywood as well as lumber began to 

 follow housing cycles. 



The late 1970's and the 1980's were years of major changes in the structural panel 

 industries, as first waferboard and then oriented-strand-board (OSB) began to make 

 significant inroads into markets for solid softwood plywood. All nonplywood structural 

 panels produced in the United States are now classified as OSB. OSB production has 

 had major influences on the species and quality of roundwood needed in the struc- 



Figure 



19 — Phytosanitary restrictions may affect trade in timber products 



30 



