Issue Highlight- 

 The Outlook for 

 Softwood Timber 

 Supplies 



For the first time In its history, the United States does not have a large, unreserved 

 volume of softwood sawtlmber in North America to draw upon to meet the Nation's 

 needs for building materials and other purposes. First the Northeast, then the Lake 

 States, the South, the U.S. West Coast, British Columbia, and the South again 

 provided the timber for increased softwood lumber production. If softwood demands 

 expand as projected in this Assessment Update, the interactions of rising demands 

 and projected supplies will lead to significant price increases for softwood roundwood 

 and lumber over the next 20 years. We project that increased recycling and matura- 

 tion of pine plantations in the South will lead to more moderate price increases after 

 about 2010. The purpose of this issue highlight is to examine in more detail the 

 situation for softwood timber supply. 



Softwood Supplies from Public Lands 



Most public lands that produce timber in the United States are managed under some 

 form of sustained yield. The National Forests have been most important in recent 

 decades, accounting for over 50 percent of total softwood output on public lands. 

 National forest harvest grew rapidly in the 1950's and 1960's, reaching a peak in 

 1987. Although harvests fluctuated in response to market conditions, allowable sale 

 quantities were relatively stable in the 1980's. Since 1989, various legislative and 

 judicial directives have caused the allowable sale quantity to drop from between 10- 

 11 billion board feet per year in the 1980's to a proposed 4.6 billion board feet in 

 1994. We project that the allowable sale quantity for National Forests will stay at that 

 level through 2000, then rise to 5.5 billion board feet by 2040. The assumed increase 

 reflects the results of timber management activities. 



Other public ownerships that have significant timber sale programs include the 

 Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and a number of States. Significant among the 

 State programs are those in the Lake States and the State of Washington. Timber 

 harvests (removals) from State-owned lands reached a peak of 1 billion cubic feet in 

 1979. The allowable sale quantities on BLM lands are expected to be 40 million cubic 

 feet in 1994 compared with an annual average of some 200 million cubic feet in the 

 1980's. We project future annual sales volumes to remain at 40 million cubic feet. 

 Harvest on State of Washington lands is projected to be 100 million cubic feet as 

 comipared with 150 million in the 1980's. For both of these ownerships, the harvest 

 reductions are assumed to be due to concerns over wildlife habitat and other aspects 

 of the environment. 



We project harvest on remaining public lands to stay near the current level of 500 

 million cubic feet, although there have been reports of declines on some ownerships 

 because of management for threatened and endangered species. 



As indicated by the above projections, it is highly unlikely that there will be significant 

 expansion in timber supplies from public lands. Consequently, the rising demands 

 projected in this Assessment Update can be met only by increases in harvest on 

 private lands, growth in net imports (increased imports and/or decreased exports). 



36 



