expanded use of recycling and other technologies that conserve on wood use and/or 

 extend the service life of end products, increased use of hardwoods, and increased 

 use of nonwood substitutes. 



Softwood Supplies from Private Lands 



Currently, softwood growing stock removals exceed growth on forest industry lands in 

 all regions and for nonindustrial private lands in the South. For nonindustrial private 

 lands in the North, Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Coast regions, growth is larger than 

 removals. 



Total softwood harvest on forest industry lands is projected to decline from 3.9 billion 

 cubic feet in 1991 to 3.8 billion cubic feet in 2000 and increase to 4 billion in 2010. In 

 2020, harvest is estimated to increase to 4.9 billion cubic feet, continuing to rise 

 through 2040. 



Total softwood harvest on nonindustrial private lands is projected to Increase through- 

 out the projection period, expanding from 4.4 billion cubic feet in 1991 to 5.9 billion 

 cubic feet in 2040, with some variation in regional trends. Between 1991 and 2000, 

 harvests are projected to increase in every subregion of the country except western 

 Oregon and Washington. After 2000, harvests should continue increasing in the North 

 and through the remainder of the projection period for western Washington and 

 Oregon. Harvests show mixed patterns in the remaining regions. 



A key to these projections are assumptions about management of private timberland. 

 Forest industry ownerships are projected to be managed intensively. Nonindustrial 

 private ownerships are projected to be managed as reflected in past inventories. For 

 the South, an effect of these assumptions is that the area of pine plantations in- 

 creases to about 45 million acres by 2040, up from about 23 million acres today. 

 Timber harvest from these plantations is projected to increase from 831 million cubic 

 feet currently to 6.1 billion cubic feet annually in 2040. Harvest from other forest 

 management types in the South is projected to decline. Most of the net increase in 

 U.S. softwood harvest of 4 billion cubic feet between 1992 and 2040 is projected to 

 come from pine plantations in the South. 



If these plantations are not established as projected, long-term prices for timber 

 products will rise more than projected. In addition, increased State and local regula- 

 tion of private lands could discourage investments in timber production, causing 

 further pressures on softwood prices. In some situations, regulations such as manda- 

 tory reforestation may enhance forest management. 



Trade 



This Assessment Update projects softwood lumber imports to increase from 11 .3 

 billion board feet in 1991 to 16.7 billion board feet in 2020, reaching 15 billion board 

 feet in 2040. Most of these imports come from Canada, although about 1 billion board 

 feet is expected to come from New Zealand and other Pacific Rim countries by 2000. 



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