Most of the imports from the Pacific Rim are assumed to be used in the millwork 

 industry of the Pacific Northwest. Some people argue that timber harvest in Canada 

 will drop by 20 percent or more by 2000, and that there is the potential threat of new 

 forest pests and diseases arriving with increased imports from the Pacific Rim. If 

 imports from these sources do not materialize as projected, U.S. prices for softwood 

 lumber will increase even more than shown in this Assessment Update. 



Exports of softwood lumber increased from 1 .9 billion board feet in 1986 to 3 billion in 

 1991. We project future exports to stay near 3 billion board feet, partly reflecting the 

 projected domestic market situation. In some foreign markets, U.S. softwood lumber 

 fills specialty end uses. In such uses, price may not be a key concern. Consequently, 

 there will continue to be exports despite rising U.S. domestic prices. Similarly, soft- 

 wood log exports are projected to stay at 2 billion board feet per year. 



Summary 



The United States is in an unprecedented situation regarding softwood sawtimber 

 supplies. Projections in this Assessment Update are especially sensitive to assump- 

 tions about future investments in plantations, recycling, and trade. 



Issue Highlight— 

 The Future of 

 Wastepaper Recycling 



Preliminary findings from the 1989 RPA Assessment indicated that increased recy- 

 cling of paper and paperboard could have wide-ranging, significant impacts on the 

 timber industries, changing the timber demand/supply outlook. We continued to study 

 the effects of recycling on the forest sector (Ince 1994). For this update, we analyzed 

 economic and technological changes of the U.S. and Canadian industries and have 

 concluded that increased paper recycling represents a fundamental long-range 

 development which will be characteristic of the U.S. pulp and paper sector in the 

 foreseeable future. 



The study involved analysis of the competitive evolution of production processes and 

 fiber markets in the North American pulp and paper sector. Current and near-term 

 future technologies were considered in the study. The economic analysis encom- 

 passed regional production and trade for all of the principal pulp, paper, and paper- 

 board commodities. The study analyzed the likely evolution of markets for fiber 

 inputs, including various categories of recovered paper and pulpwood inputs, and 

 analyzed how the competitive evolution of technology would respond to market 

 conditions. 



In 1986, 28 percent of the paper and paperboard consumed in the United States was 

 recovered for recycling. Of the total amount recovered, about four-fifths was recycled 

 in U.S. paper and board mills, and about one-fifth was exported. We project that the 

 rate of paper recovery for recycling will reach 48 percent by 2000 and 57 percent by 

 2040. Only a portion of this will be recycled in the United States (fig. 22). 



In 1986, the tonnage of recovered paper recycled in U.S. paper and board mills 

 amounted to 25 percent of U.S. paper and paperboard production. By 1992, the U.S. 



38 



