Figure 22 — Recovered paper utilization rate, 1990 with projections to 2040. 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



2030 



2040 



27 



39 



41 



42 



43 



45 



paper recycling rate had climbed to 30 percent. Recovered paper prices have re- 

 mained generally depressed in recent years due to the rapid expansion of collection 

 programs. Low prices for recovered paper have stimulated expansion of recycling 

 capacity in the pulp and paper industry. We project that the U.S. paper recycling rate 

 will reach about 40 percent by 2000. By the end of the 1990s, we project that prices 

 for most recovered paper commodities will increase substantially, eliminating the 

 current market glut and dampening the growth in recycling capacity. However, we 

 anticipate a gradual increase in paper recycling into the next century, with a projected 

 recycling rate of 45 percent by 2040. 



Projected increases in paper recycling should result in slower growth in pulpwood 

 consumption and slower growth in timber harvest. This will help to extend U.S. timber 

 supplies, especially for pulpwood-quality timber. Softwood pulpwood prices in the 

 South are projected to remain relatively stable. Hardwood pulpwood prices in this 

 region are also expected to remain relatively stable for the next two decades, then 

 increase beyond 2010 because of declines in hardwood pulpwood inventories. 



Without the expected increase in recycling, softwood and hardwood sawtimber 

 prices would be even higher than projected. In the 1989 RPA Assessment, 

 results of preliminary analysis suggested that recycling might offset significant 

 price increases. Compared with the 1989 RPA Assessment, however, national 

 forest harvest is lower; exports of pulp, paper, and paperboard are higher; 

 average house size is larger; and wood consumption in new housing and 

 residential repair and remodeling is higher in this update. These changes in 

 assumptions tend to offset the price-lowering effects of increased recycling. 



Issue Highlight— 

 Private Forestry 

 Investment 



The 1989 RPA Assessment assumes that land owned by the forest industry will be 

 managed intensively in the future, with management of nonindustrial private lands 

 continuing as indicated in recent trends. These assumptions are based on trends 

 through the early 1980's. Since then, many changes in financial markets may have 



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