affected the industry's view of investment in forest land. Assumptions about future 

 investments in private forestry in the South are key to determination of the timber 

 demand-supply outlook. We initiated a study to examine factors which have influ- 

 enced historical trends in management intensity on private forest lands and to project 

 future management on these lands (Wear, 1993). 



The study involved analysis of data for 1952 to 1992 in the South. During this period, 

 the area of land in pine plantations increased from 660,000 acres to over 14.5 million 

 acres on forest industry lands. On other private lands, the area of pine plantations 

 exceeded 8.5 million acres. The study considers these plantations and growth of 

 timber on timberland to be investments in forestry. 



During the period 1952-59, as the area of plantations increased on both private 

 ownerships, the area of natural pine decreased on both ownerships and the area of 

 mixed-pine hardwood decreased on other private lands. Loss of timberland area was 

 considered to be a disinvestment in forestry. 



Study results indicate that from 1952 to 1992, forestry investment in the South 

 replaced forest capital lost through han/esting, land-use change, and mortality, so that 

 capital has remained essentially constant. The results also indicate that the share of 

 forest assets held by the forest industry owners increased steadily until the late 

 1970's. Since then, the relative shares of assets held by the forest industry and other 

 private owners have stabilized. 



The study assumed that the total capital stock in southern forestry will remain 

 constant in the future. The areas of natural pine and mixed pine-hardwood are 

 projected to decline at annual rates of 1 .5 and 0.2 percent, respectively. The 

 total area of pine plantations in 2040 is projected to range from 40 to 45 million 

 acres, depending on assumptions about investments on forest industry lands. 



These projections are generally consistent with those in the 1989 RPA Assessment, 

 where the area of pine plantations was projected to be 45.2 million acres (fig. 23). 

 Investments will continue to be monitored and updated as appropriate for future 

 assessments. For example, Haight (1993) suggests that the expected present values 

 of low-cost management options that result in mixtures of conifers and hardwoods are 

 superior in some situations to the expected present values of intensive management 

 options. 



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