Figure 23— Area of pine plantations in ttie South. 



Millions of acres 



1990 



2000 



23.03 



36.19 



2010 



40.92 



2020 



44.01 



2030 



2040 



45.33 



45.24 



Timber Demand-Supply Comparisons 



It seems clear that real sawtimber prices (net of inflation or deflation) will continue to 

 rise in the future under a wide range of plausible demand and supply situations. 

 Recycling, decreasing sales volumes from public lands, and increasing State and 

 local restrictions on use of timberland for harvest add uncertainties to the timing and 

 extent of potential price increases. Even after accounting for the effects of recycling 

 on roundwood prices, however, stumpage prices in 2040 in the Pacific Northwest 

 subregion are projected to be one-third more than in 1990 and in the South, nearly 

 double the prices in 1990. These market signals will lead to adjustments in how wood 

 is used and grown (fig. 24 and 25). Rising prices will increase the value of the timber 

 resource regardless of ownership. 



The timber demand-supply outlook differs considerably for the periods from now 

 through about 2010 and from 2010 to 2040. In the short term, rapidly rising stumpage 

 prices are caused by rising demands and restriction of harvest on Federal lands. After 

 2010, a combination of maturation of pine plantations in the South and increased 

 recycling will lead to declines in stumpage prices through 2040, although they will still 

 be above current levels. 



The outlook for the bulk of the hardwood timber— the smaller sized timber of common 

 species — is for lower prices than for softwood timber. However, after 2000, as hard- 

 wood inventories begin to show substantial declines in response to increased remov- 

 als, stumpage prices are expected to rise. 



41 



