Water Demand and 

 Supply — The Outlook 



Rising stumpage prices will be reflected in prices of timber products. For example, 

 softwood lumber prices measured in real terms will increase by 44 percent between 

 1990 and 2040. 



The equilibrating mechanism of rising prices has obvious but differing effects on 

 consumers and producers of timber products. Rising prices for lumber, for example, 

 would have a marginal effect on the cost of a house, influencing some people to 

 reconsider decisions about the type and size of housing they could afford. Rising 

 incomes will offset somewhat the influence of rising prices, however. Owners of 

 timberland, on the other hand, may invest more money into land management be- 

 cause their real wealth will increase as prices increase and investment opportunities 

 become more attractive. 



Opportunities for Management— TUere are three major ways to increase supplies in 

 response to rising demands for timber: (1) extend supplies through improved utiliza- 

 tion, (2) increase harvests from the existing timber resource, and (3) increase net 

 annual growth. 



Timber supplies can be extended by:(1) Increasing the useful life of wood products by 

 preservative treatments, improving designs of new structures, and renovating and 

 maintaining existing structures rather than replacing them. (2) Improving efficiency in 

 harvesting, milling, construction, and manufacturing. (3) Utilizing unused wood 

 materials such as logging residues; treetops and limbs; rough, rotten, and salvable 

 dead trees; trees in urban areas, fencerows, and low-productivity forest areas; and 

 urban wood wastes. (4) Increased recycling of paper and paperboard. 



Harvests from the existing timber resource can be incremented by increasing soft- 

 wood and hardwood timber harvests on eastern forests. Sustaining these harvests 

 beyond a few decades will require investments in regeneration and more intensive 

 management to increase net annual growth, especially for control of fire, insects, 

 diseases, and weeds. 



Net annual timber growth can be increased by: (1) Regenerating nonstocked and 

 poorly stocked timberlands, harvesting and regenerating mature stands, and convert- 

 ing existing stands to more desired species. (2) Applying intensive timber manage- 

 ment practices such as species and spacing regulation, fertilization, and use of 

 genetically improved trees. (3) Using management and harvesting practices to 

 prevent or reduce losses caused by natural mortality (suppression), undesirable 

 vegetation, wildfire, insects, diseases, and poor logging practices. 



The outlook for water demand and supply is based on the 1989 RPA Assessment. 

 Key findings from the 1989 RPA Assessment include: 



— Water demands will increase significantly in the years ahead. 



— Limits on water supplies will force reallocation of available supplies among 

 users, especially in some parts of the West. 



43 



