Implications for future outdoor recreation beliavior— Predicting the implications 

 of demographic changes for future outdoor recreation behavior is a difficult 

 challenge, in part because of scarcity of data to document trends in outdoor 

 recreation participation over time. For example, we do not know if today's 40- 

 year-olds will participate in recreation in 20 years as today's 60-year-olds do. 

 Nor do we know what facilities and recreation-based equipment will be available 

 in 20 years. Recreation preferences and participation rates of racial/ethnic 

 groups may change over time. If participation rates for specified age and racial/ 

 ethnic groups are held constant (in 20 years, today's 40-year-old recreates as 

 today's 60-year old), projections indicate that growth in the number of U.S. 

 participants in most recreation activities will be lower than the growth expected 

 in the U.S. population. For other activities such as birdwatching, participants are 

 projected to grow in numbers at a slightly faster rate than the U.S. population. 



It is possible to argue that there will be a convergence of activity-specific participation 

 rates by racial/ethnic groups that will accompany increasing affluence and the 

 enculturation process. Alternatively, it can be argued that differences between groups 

 will be maintained as minority groups seek to preserve racial/ethnic identity. Discrimi- 

 nation by one group against another could play a key role and future trends in partici- 

 pation rates and future recreation patterns will also depend on trends in relations 

 among various racial/ethnic groups. 



Of the three demographic variables— age, race, and urban/rural residence— age is 

 probably the most consistent indicator of recreation participation. As the population 

 ages, participation in more strenuous activities decreases and participation in activi- 

 ties such as birdwatching increases. Even for age, however, it can be argued that 

 participation rates of older adults will increase in response to improved health care as 

 well as changing attitudes towards recreation behavior of this group. 



Outdoor Recreation Demand-Supply Comparisons 



If the public and private sectors continue to provide opportunities and to increase 

 them at rates comparable to recent trends, the projected changes in supplies will 

 meet most of the projected increases in demands. For others, where the number of 

 recreational trips Americans would prefer to take exceeds the expected supply of 

 opportunities for trips, demands will be brought into balance through increased fees, 

 higher densities of use, or rationing. In general, demand pressures are projected to 

 be greatest for dispersed land-based activities, such as day hiking and backpacking, 

 and dispersed snow-based activities, such as cross-country skiing. For other activi- 

 ties, continuing past trends in resources means that sufficient growth will occur in 

 resources to allow Americans to take as many activity-specific recreational trips as 

 they choose. These activities include developed camping, downhill skiing, picnicking, 

 swimming, and motor boating. 



The future general availability of recreation opportunities is largely determined by 

 projected population growth and expected changes in recreation resources. Resource 



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