Figure 15 — United States population projections. 



Millions 



1990 



2000 



249.9 



274.9 



2010 



294.3 



2020 



2030 



312.1 



325.5 



2040 



333.4 



increase of 109 million between 1992 and 2040, 13.7 percent is expected to be white, 

 18.8 percent black, 22.5 percent Asian and Pacific Islander, and 41.8 percent of 

 Hispanic origin. About 39 percent of the population increase is expected to be due to 

 net immigration. The increased ethnic diversity of the population has many implica- 

 tions for assessing future demands on U.S. renewable resources. For example, if skill 

 levels for immigrants are different from those for the overall U.S. population, average 

 per capita incomes will be affected. Diet preferences affect the demand for red meat 

 and therefore the demand for range forage; housing preferences affect wood use and 

 therefore the demand for timber, and recreation preferences affect the types of 

 recreation facilities needed by the U.S. population. 



Economic activity and income 



Economic activity, as measured by the official gross national product in constant 

 dollars (1982 dollars net of inflation and deflation), increased more than fivefold in the 

 past five decades and reached $4.2 trillion in 1990. In this period, there were major 

 economic recessions, a world war, and other major shocks to the U.S. economy. In 

 each case, the national economy recovered, and it is expected to continue to do so in 

 the future. The basic forces for long-run economic growth will continue. Wharton 

 Econometrics projections indicate that the gross national product will reach $15.6 

 trillion in 2040, nearly four times its level in 1990 (app table 2). Associated disposable 

 personal income will rise to $9.6 trillion, more than a threefold increase. Disposable 

 income per capita will increase over 2.5 times, to $28,790. 



The assumptions about population, gross national product, and disposable personal 

 income suggest a future with many more people having greater purchasing power — a 

 future with strong growth in demand continuing the historical trend. 



23 



