activities tlian other Americans. In part, tliis is because many African Americans 

 are urban residents with fewer wlldland recreation opportunities. Increasingly, 

 older age generally results in a change in selection of recreation activities, and 

 decreased participation rates. 



— The timber demand-supply outlook varies between now and 2010, and between 

 2010 and 2040. In the short term, rapidly rising stumpage prices will occur, 

 reflecting in part the restriction of harvest on Federal lands. After 2010, 

 maturation of pine plantations in the South and increased recycling will combine 

 to slow down increasing prices. 



— Recycling of metallic mineral and paper products is likely to increase due to 

 increased environmental awareness, changing economic incentives, and 

 legislative mandates. The contribution of recycled metals to overall metal 

 consumption increased from 30 percent in 1962 to approximately 50 percent in 

 1989. Currently, 30 percent of paper and paperboard production is based on 

 recycled materials; an increase to about 40 percent is expected by 2000. 



— One of the findings of the 1989 RPA Assessment was a trend for increased 

 closing of private lands for general public recreation. The implied consequence 

 was a potential shortage of recreation opportunities in the eastern United States, 

 where public lands are relatively scarce. Further analysis has shown that closure 

 to the general public does not necessarily reduce total recreation opportunities. 

 For example, leasing of private lands was positively correlated to level of use. 



— Exploratory and development drilling for oil and gas have decreased by more 

 than 70 percent since the early 1980's, due to decreased economic incentives 

 and regulatory delays that have limited access to public lands. Exploration and 

 production activities for nonenergy minerals have been subject to increased 

 regulation as well. Trends in exploration and development since 1989 suggest 

 increasing reliance on imported and recycled mineral resources, and imported or 

 alternate energy resources in the future. 



Findings of the 1989 RPA Assessment and the results of additional analyses reported 

 in this update form the basis for development of implications for the 1995 RPA Pro- 

 gram. 



Synthesis of Findings Significant Implications of the Assesment for Resource Situations and Trends 



The analyses of resource supplies and demands in this Assessment are based on 

 many assumptions and thus are projections rather than predictions. These projections 

 can be interpreted to evaluate potential resource conditions and trends. Although 

 some resource situations have improved over time and may be judged acceptable, 

 the future for others is potentially deteriorating or serious. The following discussion 

 highlights resource situations as being potentially acceptable, deteriorating, or seri- 

 ous. 



