Minerals Demand-Supply Comparisons 



The United States used 81.51 quadrillion Btu's (qbtu) of energy in 1991, up slightly 

 from 1989 levels (81.35 qbtu's.) Consumption is forecast to increase to 106.7 qbtu by 

 2010 and to between 114 and 138 qbtu by 2040. Petroleum (crude oil and natural gas 

 liquids) currently supplies 39 percent of energy needs, of which 17 percent is im- 

 ported. Coal supplies 27 percent of the Btu's, natural gas 25 percent, and all other 

 sources (including nuclear, hydroelectric, and solar) the remaining 9 percent. Con- 

 cerns about environmental quality, availability of supply, and changing economic 

 incentives may alter these ratios. 



At current consumption rates, proven and undiscovered resources of oil will be 

 depleted in approximately 13 years, and natural gas in approximately 20 years. Oil 

 and gas exploration, drilling, and production will be necessary if these resources are 

 to be used and replacement reserves discovered. Alternate energy sources such as 

 solar or wind generation cannot currently replace petroleum products and natural gas, 

 implying either increased domestic production or increased import reliance in the 

 short run. In the longer term, the proportion of energy needs supplied by petroleum 

 products is expected to decrease, while that supplied by coal, natural gas, and 

 alternate sources is forecast to increase. 



The United States is in no danger of running out of coal (fig. 34). At current consump- 

 tion rates of approximately 1 billion short tons per year, there are ample reserves. 

 Even at reduced recoverability levels or increased utilization, supply is adequate for 

 at least a century. Revised coal recoverability estimates and altered consumption 

 patterns, in response to increased air quality regulation, may induce changes in the 

 level of mining activity in some locations. If extraction decreases near communities 



Figure 34 — The United States is in no danger of running out of coal. 



64 



