of continued economic growth and increasing income, alttiough the future may be 

 different from that described in the basic assumptions. In recognition of this uncer- 

 tainty, this section of the Assessment Update presents the results of five different 

 futures. These futures differ from the base Assessment Update projection in key 

 assumptions about the future. Projection results for other futures are compared with 

 the base Assessment projections of consumption and other key measures of the 

 renewable resource base. The alternative futures are timber-oriented because data 

 and analytic capabilities in other resource areas are not sufficiently advanced to 

 differentiate meaningfully among alternative futures. The following descriptions 

 highlight key points in each of the futures. 



Description of Futures 



Alternative future number 1 can be described as reduced imports of softwood lumber. 

 This modifies the base Assessment Update projection by reducing softwood lumber 

 processing capacity in Canada by 20 percent. This is assumed to be the result if 

 lower harvest reductions in Canada are sustained, as some people suggest. 



Alternative future number 2 can be described as increased state and local regula- 

 tions. This modifies the base Assessment Update projection by increasing State and 

 local regulations, as suggested by the results of the study for our issue highlight on 

 the subject. 



Alternative future number 3 can be described as reduced demand. This modifies the 

 base Assessment Update projection by reducing projected growth rates for the Gross 

 National Product (to be Gross Domestic Product in future Assessments) and associ- 

 ated macroeconomic variables. These assumptions include estimates of future 

 population as issued by the Bureau of the Census in November 1992. 



Alternative future number 4 can be described as reduced investment. In this alterna- 

 tive the base Assessment Update projection is modified by reducing the area of pine 

 plantations in the South by 20 percent in 2040. 



Alternative future number 5 can be described as maximum paper and paperboard 

 recycling. This alternative modifies the base Assessment Update projection by an 

 increase in the use of recycled paper for the production of paper and paperboard. In 

 this future, the utilization rate for paper and paperboard reaches 60 percent in 2040 

 compared with 45 percent in the Assessment Update. Because of cost, leakages in 

 the waste stream (such as personal hygiene products), and problems with recycling 

 some products, we believe that a utilization rate of 60 percent is about the maximum 

 feasible. 



Effects 



All of the proposed futures indicate the possibility of significant effects on the timber 

 demand-supply outlook. In general, the effects for each future were in the expected 

 directions. The reduced softwood lumber imports future (future number 1) leads to 



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