higher prices for softwood lumber and higher prices for stumpage, especially in the 

 South. Increased State and local regulations (future nunnber 2) leads to reduced 

 harvests in all regions. However, because these regulations change the relative 

 competitiveness of the various regions, much of the impact in harvest reduction 

 occurs in the South. Lumber and plywood prices increase, as do imports of softwood 

 lumber. Reduced demand (future number 3) causes imports from Canada and end 

 product prices to be lower. Reduced investment (future number 4) leads to increased 

 stumpage prices in all regions, increased end product prices, and increased imports 

 from Canada. Maximum paper and paperboard recycling (future number 5) slows the 

 rates of increase in stumpage and end product prices, and reduces imports from 

 Canada. 



This analysis of alternative futures has demonstrated the sensitivity of the future 

 timber demand-supply outlook to changes in factors potentially affecting production 

 and use of timber products. Further details are available in the supporting technical 

 document for timber. It is difficult to visualize the potential market interactions if all 

 futures were to occur simultaneously. For example, reduced demand and maximum 

 paper and paperboard recycling would tend to offset the effects of reduced imports of 

 softwood lumber, increased State and local regulations, and reduced investments. 

 Key measures of these alternative futures will be monitored for implications for the 

 future outlook. 



Ecosystems 

 Management and 

 Resource Interactions 



At the 1992 UNCED meeting in Rio de Janeiro, the United States announced a policy 

 of ecosystem management for natural resources. In June 1993, at the second Minis- 

 terial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, the United States an- 

 nounced a goal of managing forests on a sustainable basis by the year 2000. As 

 implemented by the Forest Service, ecosystem management means to produce 

 desired resource values, uses, products, or services in ways that also sustain the 

 diversity and productivity of ecosystems. An emphasis on ecosystem management 

 may change the nature of production possibilities and feasibilities. 



The emphasis on ecosystems management for public lands is occurring in part 

 because of the cumulative effects of past management activities on public and private 

 lands. These activities often led to increased sedimentation in streams; less produc- 

 tive rangeland conditions; fragmented plant, animal, and fish habitats; and increased 

 forest health problems. Population growth, increased use, and other factors have also 

 caused significant declines in the range and numbers of many native flora and fauna. 

 Public lands are the last refuge for many vanishing species. 



Past management has often focused more on selected parts of ecosystems than on 

 the wholes or on the processes that keep ecological systems healthy, diverse, and 

 productive. New information and a better understanding of ecological processes 

 highlight the role of biological diversity as a factor in sustaining the health and produc- 

 tivity of ecosystems. 



Ecosystem management recognizes that natural systems — ^their composition, struc- 

 ture, and function — must be sustained in order to meet the social and economic 



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