in the West has been in effect since 
1974 and is assumed to continue. 
Currently, there are no restrictions on 
exports from State and private lands, 
and none are assumed in the future. If 
restrictions were to be placed on State 
lands in the West, there would be 
major effects in local roundwood 
markets but not much effect on the 
overall demand-supply situation. The 
volumes of log exports from State 
lands are relatively small compared 
with total U.S. log supply. 
It is apparent from the above trends 
that domestic forest lands must supply 
most of the higher demands projected 
for the future. 
The Timber Resource 
The Nation’s timberlands contain some 
831 billion cubic feet of roundwood 
(app. table 5); 91 percent of this is in 
growing stock (live, sound trees suited 
for roundwood products) and the 
remaining 9 percent is in rotten, cull, 
and salvable dead trees. Some of the 
latter may be suitable for lumber and 
veneer, but most is usable only for 
pulp, fuel, and other products where 
there are no significant log quality 
requirements. | 
Timber inventories rise when net 
annual growth (total growth less 
mortality) is greater than the volumes 
removed by timber harvesting, 
clearing, or changing land use (timber 
removals). The growth-removals 
' There are additional and large volumes of fiber 
in treetops, limbs, and bark; in trees under 5 
inches in diameter at breast height; and in trees 
on forest land other than timberland. These 
volumes, also found in fence rows and in urban 
areas, are usable for fuel, pulp, and other 
products where there are no significant log 
quality requirements. Much of the fuelwood now 
being used for domestic heating comes from 
these sources. 
balance for the United States is positive 
for all species (1.37), for softwoods 
(1.13), and for hardwoods (1.90). The 
ratios in the North are very high, 
indicating continued substantial 
increases in growing stock volume. 
The softwood ratio for the South is 
declining and approaching 1.00. The 
growth-removals ratio in the Rocky 
Mountains exceeds 2.00, and for the 
Pacific coast, it is 1.07. 
The Rocky Mountain region has had a 
growth—-removal balance greater than 
1.00 for a long time, but inventories 
have increased slowly because many of 
the stands are old, mortality is high, 
and thus net annual growth is low. 
Projected Trends in Timber 
Supplies 
The outlook for timber supplies 
depends on the trend in area of 
timberland, current level of inventories, 
stumpage prices, growth and removals, 
institutional constraints on timber 
harvest rates, and investments in forest 
management. 
The area of timberland has been 
declining consistently for the past 
couple of decades in the South and 
Pacific coast regions (fig. 14). Because 
recent increases in the North and 
Rocky Mountain regions are believed 
to be temporary, we assume that 
timberland area will decline in all 
regions over the coming decades. By 
2040, the loss in area 1s expected to be 
some 21 million acres for the country 
as a whole. 
The current growth—removal balances 
for timber show that the hardwood 
forests and eastern softwood forests 
can support additional harvests. 
However, these balances will change, 
and future harvests, particularly in the 
decades beyond 2000, could vary over 
a wide range. Nonetheless, assuming 
that timberland owners continue to 
respond as they have in the past to 
price and inventory changes and 
manage their timber stands as 
projected, timber harvests will be 
increased substantially in most regions. 
Total projected softwood roundwood 
harvests rise from 11.7 billion cubic 
feet in 1986 to 15.8 billion cubic feet in 
2040, an increase of 35 percent. 
Projected hardwood harvests increase 
by 79 percent, rising from 6.3 billion 
cubic feet in 1986 to 11.3 billion in 
2040. The largest increases will be in 
the South. 
Assumptions about future management 
intensities vary by ownership. Forest 
industry lands in the South and western 
Washington and Oregon are assumed 
to be managed intensively to the point 
where all economic opportunities for 
management are captured. The 
projection of intensified management 
of forest industry lands has important 
implications for expectations of future 
harvests on private lands in western 
Oregon and Washington and the South. 
In western Oregon and Washington, 
previous projections of harvests using 
assumptions of lower management 
intensity on the industry portion of 
private lands indicated that current 
harvest levels could not be maintained 
for the private ownership category. If 
industry-owned lands are managed 
intensively in the future, current total 
private harvest of about 1.6 billion 
cubic feet could be maintained and 
possibly increase as second-growth 
timber reaches merchantable size after 
2010. Research is currently underway 
to assess the potential of this second 
growth to be the base for expanded 
timber harvests in the future. In part 
because of unexplained growth 
declines on natural pine stands in the 
South, harvest volumes are near or 
exceed net annual growth in some 
areas. After the turn of the century, 
