Pounds 
200 
150 
100 
=== Beef and veal 
=== Poultry 
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, 1986. 
Figure 22—Per capita meat consumption in the United States, by edible weight, 1965-85. 
beef substitutes. The beef industry is 
working on marketing and product 
development that may stimulate beef 
consumption. Other studies and expert 
opinion on future consumption suggest 
that per capita demand for meat will be 
steady or slowly rise. For the purposes 
of this assessment, per capita demands 
for beef, veal, lamb, and mutton are 
assumed to remain constant and, in 
total, amount to 110 Ib (carcass weight) 
per person. This is a departure from the 
1979 RPA Assessment, which 
projected per capita consumption of 
148 lb by 2030, and reflects trends of 
the past decade. Thus, total U.S. 
demand for beef, veal, lamb, and 
mutton is expected to increase in line 
with population growth. 
Projections to 2040 indicate a 56- 
percent increase 1n beef and veal 
production compared with 1985 levels. 
Lamb and mutton production are 
expected to remain near 1985 levels. 
The 56-percent increase in derived 
demand is higher than the 38-percent 
increase in U.S. population in part 
because imports are expected to decline 
as compared with 1985. 
We derived estimates of grazed forage 
consumption from the projections for 
production of beef, veal, mutton, and 
lamb. By 2040, total forage 
consumption for cattle and sheep is 
expected to be nearly 660 million 
animal unit-months (the amount of 
forage required for a 1,000-pound cow, 
or the equivalent, for | month), 
compared with 431 million in 1985. 
Projected Forage Supply 
The forage to be supplied in the future 
depends on both the area of rangeland 
and production per unit area. It is 
assumed that cropland placed in the 
Conservation Reserve Program will 
remain in permanent cover and not be 
returned to crop production. After 
taking account of the effects of this 
program, we project that rangeland 
area will increase some 5 percent by 
2040. 
Through the implementation of 
existing technology, productivity of 
private rangeland is assumed to 
increase ().7 percent per year for the 
1987-2040 period. Some 150 
technologies have been identified as 
potentially increasing the future 
productivity of agriculture and 
livestock production. These do not 
include genetic engineering of animals 
but do include genetic engineering of 
the plants used for forage. They also 
include further application of 
traditional management practices such 
as fencing. We assume that market and 
other incentives will lead to the 
adoption of these technologies. Under 
these assumptions, by 2040, forage 
