Outdoor Recreation 
Demand-Supply—The 
Outlook 
Outlook Overview 
e The number of people participating 
in recreation is expected to increase 
across all recreational activities during 
the next 5 decades. 
e The percentage of the total 
population participating in recreation 
has stabilized in recent years, as has the 
per capita allocation of leisure time to 
recreational pursuits. 
e Thus, total demand for recreation 
would grow at least in line with 
population growth if this pattern 
continues in the future. 
e In addition, real per capita income is 
projected to more than double by 2040. 
This extra income will contribute to 
differential rates of growth in 
recreational activities. For example, 
demands for snow-related recreation 
are expected to grow at a faster rate 
than for most land- and water-based 
activities, but the latter activities will 
continue to dominate total recreation 
patterns. 
e If the public and private sectors 
continue to provide and expand 
opportunities at rates comparable to 
recent trends, the projected increases in 
supplies will meet most of the 
projected increases in demands. 
e The effect of continuing to close 
more private lands to public access is 
evident in the projected shortfall in 
land- and snow-based opportunities 
near roaded, partially developed sites. 
e To meet these shortfalls, fees, 
especially for recreational use of 
private land, will become more 
important in the recreational supply 
picture in the future. Most of the 
increase in demand will be near 
existing population centers, which are 
generally far away from the bulk of the 
Federal lands located in the West. 
e National forests and other public 
lands in the North, South, and Pacific 
coast region are expected to become 
relatively more important for all forms 
of recreation if access remains 
generally unrestricted and free. 
e Rather than national trends affecting 
all regions alike, the differential rates 
of growth in activities indicate that 
specific regions and areas of the 
country will be affected in different 
ways by the expected growth in 
recreation. For example, growth in 
demand for downhill skiing has 
obvious implications for areas of the 
country with the unique terrain needed 
for this activity. 
The Resource Base 
Although most forest and range lands 
and water are suitable for some forms 
of outdoor recreation, relatively little 
acreage 1s managed for recreation that 
involves large capital investments and 
intensive use. Parks, reservoirs, and 
picnic areas account for a large 
proportion of the area that is managed 
for intensive use. Most of these areas 
are administered by the U.S. 
Department of the Interior’s National 
Park Service, the U.S. Army Corps of 
Engineers, and park agencies of State 
and local governments. 
Most of the outdoor recreation 
activities that involve capital-intensive, 
convenience-oriented facilities and 
high-density use areas (such as 
recreational vehicle parks, marinas, and 
swimming pools) are on private lands 
with privately owned facilities. Most of 
America’s major ski areas are located 
on public lands but built and managed 
by private firms. In contrast, most of 
the dispersed recreational activities that 
require little in the way of convenience 
facilities are provided publicly on 
public lands, particularly those 
managed by the Forest Service and the 
Bureau of Land Management, mainly 
in the West, and lands managed by the 
States in the East. Most of the public 
lands managed by these agencies are 
also used for multiple purposes, 
including the production of timber, 
water, forage, and wildlife. The 
distinction between the types of 
activities provided on public and 
private lands is not exact: all types of 
recreation occur on both public and 
private lands. There are, however, 
some notable differences important in 
considering the recreational resource 
situation in the United States. 
Private lands are generally more 
intensively roaded than public lands. 
Thus, they can provide fewer remote 
recreation opportunities than public 
lands. Over 350 million acres of public 
recreation lands, or about 55 percent of 
the total, are estimated to be more than 
one-half mile from roads and thus 
provide backcountry opportunities. 
Only about 27 million acres of private 
rural lands, or about 2 percent of their 
total, are that remote. 
Private Lands 
Recreational opportunities on private 
lands depend in part on the land cover 
and in part on access to the land. About 
95 percent of the privately owned rural 
land in the contiguous 48 States 1s 
classed as nonindustrial private and 
held by an estimated 14.1 million 
owners. These lands are owned for a 
variety of purposes including crop 
production, grazing, timber production, 
and especially “country living” and 
hobby farming. Increasingly, people 
own land for recreational purposes. 
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