increase in line with the growth of 
these industries. Demands for 
phosphate rock are tied largely to the 
fate of U.S. and world agricultural 
production, which will increase in total, 
with production in any one country 
dependent on economic factors and 
government policies. We expect 
demand for sand and gravel to increase 
in line with the demand for 
construction. 
The Minerals Supply Situation 
The Nation is rich in many of the 
minerals it requires. In 1986, the 
United States was among the top three 
mineral-producing nations worldwide 
for 33 of 87 important minerals. It has 
significant known reserves of many 
mineral commodities, including some 
that are imported. Various types of 
minerals can be found in many parts of 
the country. Most of the coal reserves 
are under forest lands in the 
Appalachian region and rangelands in 
the northern Great Plains. Most of the 
metallic minerals occur under forest 
and range lands in the Rocky Mountain 
region. 
There is little information on the 
quantities of minerals in public and 
private ownership. While significant 
amounts of minerals are believed to lie 
beneath Federal lands, these lands 
account for a relatively small 
proportion of total domestic minerals 
production, indicating that large 
amounts of minerals are in private 
ownership. 
On National Forest System lands, the 
greatest potential for minerals activity 
is likely to be in coal, oil and gas, 
phosphate, molybdenum, and certain 
precious metals. 
All of the areas in Federal ownership 
are subject to some mitigation 
requirements to protect surface 
resources where mining occurs. Some 
of the forest and range land in this 
ownership has been withdrawn 
specifically to protect against land- 
disturbing activities, which include 
minerals exploration and development. 
Other, much larger, areas have been 
reserved (dedicated) for particular 
public purposes or uses (parks, 
wilderness, etc.) and may not be 
available for producing minerals, 
timber, or range forage. 
It is difficult to generalize about 
management investment and its effects 
on minerals outputs because minerals 
must be “discovered.” However, 
management investment can affect 
exploration and subsequent monitoring 
of development. 
Minerals are traded in world markets to 
a far greater degree than other forest 
and rangeland resources. Thus, 
domestic reserves are only one possible 
source of the minerals required to 
satisfy the Nation’s needs. For most 
minerals the United States requires, 
there appear to be adequate supplies 
worldwide available to anyone with the 
money to buy them. Although there are 
abundant supplies of metallic minerals 
worldwide, their cost and security of 
supply raise questions about their 
stable and long-term availability. The 
market for many minerals is global in 
scope and extremely complex, and for 
some minerals there are frequent 
periods of shortages or oversupply. A 
number of minerals critical to the U.S. 
economy or important for national 
defense are controlled by unstable or 
unfriendly governments or are 
vulnerable to disruption by regional 
conflict. 
Recycling is another source of supply. 
In the case of a few minerals, recycled 
material is an important domestic 
source. For example, there is no 
significant domestic source for tin, yet 
in 1986, about 20 percent of the 45.7 
million metric tons consumed came 
from recycled material. Recycling is 
affected by the cost of recycling 
relative to the purchase of new 
supplies. This margin has gone through 
business cycles over time, and the 
boom-and-bust nature of the recycling 
business has impeded additional reuse 
of mineral products. 
Minerals Demand-Supply 
Comparisons 
Demand-supply comparisons for 
minerals suggest that there is not likely 
to be any lack of physical availability 
of the various minerals used in the 
United States. History, however, tells 
us that the future demand-—supply 
situation for many minerals will be 
dynamic, with many short-term 
fluctuations in prices and other 
measures of the market. For example, 
we expect that the demand for metallic 
minerals will increase moderately 
overall, but new technologies will 
stimulate demand for some minerals 
and reduce consumption of others. 
Overall, there will be no physical 
shortage of any energy minerals, 
although the price of oil is expected to 
increase significantly. Price will 
influence the effective supply of oil, 
natural gas, oil shale, and tar sands, as 
rising prices stimulate exploration and 
development. The outlook for supplies 
of natural gas is relatively bright. 
The United States has supplies of many 
metallic minerals and precious metals 
sufficient to accommodate domestic 
demand through 2040. However, the 
United States does not have supplies of 
some metallic minerals of economic 
and strategic importance. For those 
minerals present in the United States, 
the cost of foreign supplies compared 
with the cost of domestic production 
4] 
