Figure 38—Growth reductions already observed, such as for red spruce, have generally been less 
than 10 percent. 
Figure 39—There may be more surplus cropland in the future, and that could lead to more 
abandoned farmland. 
Service) reverts to natural cover with a 
10-year timelag. It is recognized by 
both the Forest Service and the Soil 
Conservation Service that the time 
required to reach climax vegetation 
varies considerably by area and could 
take over 100 years. The purpose of 
this future is to examine the possible 
effects of early reversion of surplus 
crop and pastureland to natural cover. 
Alternative future number 5 can be 
described as the recycling future. It is 
the base Assessment projection 
modified by increasing the use of 
recyclable paper in the production of 
paper and board, reaching a utilization 
rate of 39 percent in 2040, compared 
with 31 percent assumed in the 
Assessment projection. From 25 
percent in 1987, the utilization rate is 
increased to 27 percent in 2000, to 30 
percent in 2010, to 34 percent in 2020, 
and to 37 percent in 2030. Lack of 
landfill space is now or soon will be a 
major problem in some areas, 
especially in the East. Publicly 
mandated recycling of paper and 
paperboard and the economics of 
disposal versus recycling may lead to 
significant recycling of these materials. 
The purpose of this future is to 
demonstrate the potential effects of 
increased recycling on the forestry 
sector. 
Effects 
In general, the various futures had only 
marginal effects on the demand—supply 
outlook at the national level. The 
effects that did occur for each future 
were in the expected directions. The 
high productivity future (future number 
1) leads to a more competitive 
sawmilling industry with associated 
decreases 1n softwood lumber imports 
from Canada and increased domestic 
production. There were marginal 
decreases in prices for softwood 
stumpage and lumber. Higher exports 
(future number 2) tend to raise 
stumpage and lumber prices and 
increase imports from Canada. 
Reduced tree growth (future number 3) 
causes stumpage and lumber prices to 
increase, but the effects occur 
gradually over time, in part because of 
the availability of existing timber 
inventories. Much of the surplus 
43 
