cropland (future number 4) identified 
in the Second Resources Conservation 
Act Appraisal is in the Great Plains, 
where range is the natural cover. Some 
acreage in the South would go into 
forest cover, but not enough to change 
the national demand—supply outlook. 
The recycling future (number 5) leads 
to decreased softwood stumpage prices 
in the South. Much of the expansion of 
pulp capacity projected in the 
Assessment 1s expected to be in this 
region. Recycled paper and paperboard 
materials substitute for pulpwood 
otherwise destined for papermaking. 
Softwood lumber prices also decrease 
because of the lower overall demand 
for wood. 
Although increased recycling could 
affect the national demand—supply 
outlook, there are a number of 
logistical and technical problems to be 
resolved before significant increases in 
recycling can occur. For example, it is 
difficult to remove from paper the ink 
used in laser printers. As the waste 
disposal problem becomes more 
severe, however, these problems may 
be resolved. 
Social, Economic, and 
Environmental Implications of 
Projected Demand-Supply 
Comparisons and 
Opportunities for Responding 
to Them 
Continuing population and economic 
growth in the United States implies 
growing demands for all renewable 
resources. The projected expansion of 
private and public resource investments 
and supporting research will expand 
supplies of all renewable resources. 
Equilibrium will be established 
between demands and supplies for each 
renewable resource in the future as it 
has been in the past. Social, economic, 
44 
and environmental implications flow 
from the equilibrium levels of 
renewable resource outputs and the 
ways that equilibriums are established. 
There are opportunities for investment 
in and management of the Nation’s 
renewable resources so as to increase 
supplies. Increases in supplies would 
affect the equilibrium between supply 
and demand and thereby affect the 
social, economic, and environmental 
implications of the projected 
demand-supply situations for the 
various renewable resources. These 
opportunities exist on both public and 
private lands, but the distribution of 
opportunities across ownerships can 
vary by renewable resource. Increases 
in supplies in response to demand 
growth will increase national economic 
welfare. Increased supplies, however, 
would benefit some sectors of the 
economy at the expense of other 
sectors. The appropriate mix of Forest 
Service activities to influence supplies 
of renewable resources is considered in 
the RPA Program. 
Timber 
Implications—It seems clear that real 
timber prices (net of inflation or 
deflation) will continue to rise in the 
future under a wide range of plausible 
demand and supply situations. These 
market signals will lead to shifts in 
how wood is used and how it is grown. 
Rising prices will increase the value of 
the timber resource regardless of 
ownership. 
The equilibrating mechanism of rising 
prices has obvious but differing effects 
on consumers and producers of timber 
products. Rising prices for lumber, for 
example, would have a marginal effect 
on the cost of a house, influencing 
some people to reconsider decisions 
about the type and size of housing they 
could afford (fig. 40). Rising incomes 
will offset somewhat the influence of 
rising prices, however. Owners of 
timberland, on the other hand, may 
invest more money into land 
management because their real wealth 
will increase as prices increase and 
investment opportunities become more 
attractive. 
In the long run, consumers use less of a 
product that costs more in real terms. 
When lumber, plywood, and pulp 
become costlier, the markets for 
competing materials will improve at 
the timber industry’s expense. Higher 
prices may also provide market signals 
that lead to economizing in the way 
that Americans use wood and to 
changes in building practices that 
minimize wood use. 
Exports of most timber products are 
determined largely by the capability of 
U.S. producers to compete on a price 
basis with producers in other countries. 
Consequently, rising real prices will 
also constrain the country’s export 
potential and affect the balance-of- 
payments situation. 
As stumpage and timber product prices 
rise relative to other materials, use of 
substitute products, such as concrete, 
steel, aluminum, and plastic, will 
increase above the levels that otherwise 
would have prevailed. Widespread 
substitution will cause changes in the 
types of environmental impacts 
associated with use of renewable 
resources. Changes in the use of 
building materials will lead to 
adjustments of various types in some 
local economies. For example, some 
sawmills may close, and new sources 
of sand and gravel may have to be 
found and developed. 
Opportunities—There are three major 
ways to increase supplies in response 
to rising demands for timber: (1) 
